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How Robust Are Estimates Of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case Of China

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  • Steven Dunaway
  • Lamin Leigh
  • Xiangming Li

Abstract

Assessments of a country's real exchange rate relative to its 'equilibrium' value as suggested by 'fundamental' determinants have received increasing attention. Using China as an example, the present paper illustrates models commonly used to derive equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. The large variance in the estimates raises serious questions about the robustness of these results. The basic conclusion is that, at least for China, small changes in model specifications, explanatory variable definitions, and time periods used in estimation can lead to very substantial differences in equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Therefore, such estimates should be treated with great caution. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Dunaway & Lamin Leigh & Xiangming Li, 2009. "How Robust Are Estimates Of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case Of China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 361-375, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:14:y:2009:i:3:p:361-375
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    Cited by:

    1. Fedderke, Johannes W. & Hill, Andrew J., 2011. "Industry structure and labor market flexibility in the South African manufacturing sector: A time series and panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1291-1302, May.
    2. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "Global imbalances: Should we use fundamental equilibrium exchange rates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 383-398.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Xin Nong, 2016. "Estimating Currency Misalignment Using the Penn Effect: It’s Not as Simple As It Looks," NBER Working Papers 22539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
      [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]
      ," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignment - The Case of the Chinese Renminbi," CESifo Working Paper Series 3797, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Eiji Fujii, 2014. "Exchange Rate Misalignment Estimates—Sources Of Differences," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 91-121, March.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters,in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, "undated". "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," Economics Working Papers 16-01/2014, School of Business Administration, American University of Sharjah.
    9. Zhang, Zhibai & Chen, Langnan, 2014. "A new assessment of the Chinese RMB exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 113-122.
    10. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2011. "Renminbising China'S Foreign Assets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, pages 1-17.
    11. Giovanni Ferri & Li-Gang Liu, 2010. "Honor Thy Creditors Beforan Thy Shareholders: Are the Profits of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Real?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, pages 50-71.
    12. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Jakob de Haan & Xingwang Qian & Shu Yu, 2012. "China's Outward Direct Investment in Africa," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, pages 201-220.
    13. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2011. "Renminbising China'S Foreign Assets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, pages 1-17.
    14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2009. "Renminbisation des actifs internationaux de la Chine," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 135-155.
    15. Zhang, Zhibai, 2012. "A simple model and its application in currency valuation," MPRA Paper 40650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2009. "Bank Competition and International Financial Integration: Evidence using a new index," FIW Working Paper series 037, FIW.
    17. Lòpez-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mazier, Jacques & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Temporal dimension and equilibrium exchange rate: A FEER/BEER comparison," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, pages 58-77.
    18. Shaghil Ahmed, 2009. "Are Chinese exports sensitive to changes in the exchange rate?," International Finance Discussion Papers 987, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Yoonbai Kim & Gil Kim, 2012. "The Renminbi Debate: A Review of Issues and Search for Resolution," Chapters,in: Asian Responses to the Global Financial Crisis, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2016. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
    21. Zhibai, Zhang, 2012. "A Simple Model and Its Application in the Valuation of Five Asian Real Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 40953, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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