IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/362015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asymmetric credit growth and current account imbalances in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Unger, Robert

Abstract

The euro area crisis is often linked to the emergence of current account imbalances. As most of the deficit countries experienced pronounced credit booms at the same time that these imbalances were building up, this paper investigates the link between domestic credit developments and the current account balance, distinguishing between a credit pull and a credit push factor. The pull factor captures flows of bank loans to the domestic non-financial private sector. An increase in these flows is expected to lead to higher domestic demand and a deterioration of the current account. The push factor measures flows of claims of domestic banks on debtors in other euro-area countries, and an increase is expected to lead to higher external demand and an improvement in the current account. Using a panel error correction specification, the estimation results confirm that the pull factor is a significant determinant of the current account, whereas the results for the push factor are less clear-cut. The paper also shows that variations in the flows of bank loans to the non-financial private sector (i.e. the pull factor) - together with changes in competitiveness - constituted the most important factor driving the build-up of current account imbalances in the deficit countries. Accordingly, impeding an increase in private sector indebtedness seems to be a promising way to dampen the formation of unsustainable current account imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Unger, Robert, 2015. "Asymmetric credit growth and current account imbalances in the euro area," Discussion Papers 36/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:362015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/121396/1/2015_10_27_dkp_36.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2015. "Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 137-154.
    2. Angeles, Luis, 2015. "A note on debt and economic activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 67-69.
    3. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
    4. Michael G. Arghyrou & Georgios Chortareas, 2008. "Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 747-764, September.
    5. Schmitz, Birgit & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2011. "Current account imbalances and financial integration in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1676-1695.
    6. Sebastian Barnes & Jeremy Lawson & Artur Radziwill, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: A Comparative Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 826, OECD Publishing.
    7. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    8. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Piti Disyatat, 2011. "The Bank Lending Channel Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 711-734, June.
    10. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    11. Gunther Schnabl & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "Fiscal Divergence and Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 4108, CESifo.
    12. Hobza, Alexandr & Zeugner, Stefan, 2014. "Current accounts and financial flows in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 291-313.
    13. Smith, Constance E., 2011. "External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1195-1213, October.
    14. José Abad & Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2013. "Fiscal divergence, current account divergence and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 48(1), pages 51-58, January.
    15. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
    16. Holger Zemanek & Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2010. "Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-127, May.
    17. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jeroen Hessel, 2014. "Current account imbalances in the Euro area: Competitiveness or financial cycle?," DNB Working Papers 443, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    19. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "The Great Leveraging in the GIIPS Countries: Domestic Credit and Net Foreign Liabilities," Working Papers 2015012, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    20. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    21. Charles Wyplosz, 2013. "The Eurozone Crisis and the Competitiveness Legend," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 12(3), pages 63-81, Fall.
    22. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    23. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "The great (De)leveraging in the GIIPS countries. Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities 1998–2013," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    24. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    25. Lane, Philip, 2013. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 9493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Abad, José & Löffler, Axel & Schnabl, Gunther & Zemanek, Holger, 2012. "Fiscal divergence, current account and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU," Working Papers 105, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    27. Spiegel, Mark M., 2009. "Monetary and financial integration: Evidence from the EMU," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 114-130, June.
    28. Clemens Kool & Erik de Regt & Tom van Veen, 2013. "Money Overhang, Credit Overhang and Financial Imbalances in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 4476, CESifo.
    29. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    30. Jakab, Zoltan & Kumhof, Michael, 2015. "Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds – and why this matters," Bank of England working papers 529, Bank of England.
    31. Ahrend, Rudiger, 2010. "Monetary ease: A factor behind financial crises? Some evidence from OECD countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-30.
    32. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
    33. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    34. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    35. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    36. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    37. Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Monetary and Financial Integration in the EMU: Push or Pull?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 751-776, September.
    38. Christian Schoder & Christian R. Proaño & Willi Semmler, 2013. "Are The Current Account Imbalances Between Emu Countries Sustainable? Evidence From Parametric And Non‐Parametric Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 1179-1204, November.
    39. repec:zbw:rwirep:0176 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2013. "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Does Catching up Explain the Development?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 6-17, February.
    41. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
    42. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    43. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael, 2014. "How the Euro Crisis Evolved and how to Avoid Another: EMU, Fiscal Policy and Credit Ratings," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 364-374.
    44. Kuzin, Vladimir & Schobert, Franziska, 2015. "Why does bank credit not drive money in Germany (any more)?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 41-51.
    45. Ruo Chen & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Thierry Tressel, 2013. "External imbalances in the eurozone [Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(73), pages 101-142.
    46. Zwick, Lina, 2015. "International liquidity shocks and domestic loan supply in the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 564, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    47. McLeay, Michael & Radia, Amar & Thomas, Ryland, 2014. "Money creation in the modern economy," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 14-27.
    48. repec:lmu:muenar:19832 is not listed on IDEAS
    49. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "XTPMG: Stata module for estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Statistical Software Components S456868, Boston College Department of Economics.
    50. Muellbauer, John & Geiger, Felix & Rupprecht, Manuel, 2016. "The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer," Working Paper Series 1904, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," Working Papers hal-04141675, HAL.
    3. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
    4. Hope, David, 2016. "Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    5. Nieminen, Mika, 2015. "Trade imbalances within the euro area and with respect to the rest of the world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 306-314.
    6. Marzinotto, Benedicta, 2022. "Euro area current account imbalances: A tale of two financial liberalizations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    8. Esposito, Piero & Messori, Marcello, 2019. "Competitive or recession gains? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 147-167.
    9. Enno Schröder, 2015. "Eurozone Imbalances: Measuring the Contribution of Expenditure Switching and Expenditure Volumes 1990-2013," Working Papers 1508, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    10. Guellil, Mohammed Seghir & Sari-Hassoun, Salah Eddine & Chica-Olmo, Jorge & Saraç, Mehmet, 2022. "What are the main factors driving behind the MENA countries current account deficit? A panel logit approach analysis [¿Cuáles son los principales factores que impulsan el déficit de cuenta corrient," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 33(1), pages 134-153, June.
    11. Boonman, Tjeerd & Litsios, Ioannis & Pilbeam, Keith & Pouliot, William, 2022. "Modelling the trade balance between the northern and southern eurozone using an intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Giuseppe Caivano & Nicola D. Coniglio, 2016. "Long-Run Drivers of Current Account Imbalances in the EU: the Role of Trade Openness," SERIES 03-2016, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised May 2016.
    13. Emmanuelle Faure & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon, 2022. "Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: an Appraisal of the Underlying Forces," Working Papers 2022-12, CEPII research center.
    14. Roberta De Santis & Tatiana Cesaroni, 2016. "Current Account ‘Core–Periphery Dualism’ in the EMU," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1514-1538, October.
    15. Benedicta Marzinotto, 2016. "Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Imbalances under EMU," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 110, European Institute, LSE.
    16. Faure Emmanuelle & Mignon Valérie & Grekou Carl, 2024. "Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: An Appraisal of the Underlying Forces," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 353-398, January.
    17. Samarina, Anna & Bezemer, Dirk, 2016. "Do capital flows change domestic credit allocation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 98-121.
    18. Carlos Alberto Carrasco, 2016. "Causality between external balance and (some) fiscal variables: Preliminary results for the Eurozone," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 80-86.
    19. Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Current account imbalances in the euro area: Catching up or competitiveness?," Discussion Papers 297, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    20. Nieminen, Mika, 2022. "Cross-country variation in patience, persistent current account imbalances and the external wealth of nations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banks; credit growth; current account imbalances; euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:362015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.