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Monetary ease: A factor behind financial crises? Some evidence from OECD countries

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  • Ahrend, Rudiger

Abstract

This paper addresses the question of whether and how easy monetary policy may lead to excesses in financial and real asset markets and ultimately result in financial dislocation. It presents evidence suggesting that periods when short-term interest rates were persistently and significantly below what Taylor rules would prescribe are correlated with increases in asset prices, especially as regards housing, though no systematic effects are identified on equity markets. Significant asset price increases, however, can also occur when interest rates are in line with Taylor rules, possibly associated with periods of financial deregulation and/or innovation. Finding also some support for a link of countries' pre-crisis monetary stance with the extent to which their financial sectors were hit during the recent crisis, the paper argues that accommodating monetary policy over the period 2002-2005, probably in combination with rapid financial market innovation, would, in retrospect, seem to have been among the factors behind the run-up in asset prices and financial imbalances - the (partial) unwinding of which helped trigger the recent financial market crisis.

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  • Ahrend, Rudiger, 2010. "Monetary ease: A factor behind financial crises? Some evidence from OECD countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 4, pages 1-30.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201012
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2010-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fitwi, Abrar M. & Hein, Scott E. & Mercer, Jeffrey M., 2015. "The U.S. housing price bubble: Bernanke versus Taylor," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 62-80.
    2. Taylor, John B., 2013. "International monetary coordination and the great deviation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-472.
    3. Landais, Bernard, 2018. "Renoncer à la théorie des zones monétaires optimales ?
      [Renouncing to the Optimal Currency Aera Theory ?]
      ," MPRA Paper 85695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2012. "Financial crisis and extreme market risks: Evidence from Europe," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 120-130.
    5. Ferlito, Carmelo, 2015. "At the Root of Economic Fluctuations: Expectations, Preferences and Innovation. Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidences," MPRA Paper 67708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Rudiger Ahrend & Jens Arnold & Fabrice Murtin, 2011. "Have more strictly regulated banking systems fared better during the recent financial crisis?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 399-403.
    8. John B. Taylor, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Independence Versus Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 12-009, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2011. "Ist die Geldpolitik in den USA zu expansiv?," Kiel Policy Brief 26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Landais, Bernard, 2010. "The monetary origins of the financial and economic crisis," MPRA Paper 23769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Alexander William Salter, 2016. "Robust Political Economy and the Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 1-27, August.
    12. John B. Taylor, 2012. "Monetary Policy Rules Work and Discretion Doesn't: A Tale of Two Eras," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1017-1032, September.
    13. John B. Taylor, 2014. "Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy," Economics Working Papers 14107, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    14. Landais, Bernard, 2009. "La politique monétaire et la crise
      [Monetary Policy and The Crisis]
      ," MPRA Paper 15652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur erholt sich – Wirtschaftspolitik stärker an der langen Frist ausrichten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(08), pages 03-77, April.
    16. Unger, Robert, 2017. "Asymmetric credit growth and current account imbalances in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 435-451.
    17. Volha Audzei, 2015. "Information Acquisition and Excessive Risk: Impact of Policy Rate and Market Volatility," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 9(2), pages 115-135.
    18. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T Orlowski, 2011. "Extreme Risks in Financial Markets and Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(4), pages 511-534, December.
    19. Anne-Marie Rieu-Foucault, 2018. "Politique monétaire et stabilité financière," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-13, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    20. Scott, C. Patrick & Barari, Mahua, 2017. "Monetary policy deviations: A Bayesian state-space analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-12.
    21. C. Patrick Scott, 2016. "Are central bank preferences asymmetric when policy targets vary over time?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 577-589, September.
    22. Scott, C. Patrick, 2016. "Asymmetric preferences and monetary policy deviations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 325-334.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; monetary policy; housing; sub-prime crisis; financial markets; macro-prudential; regulation; Taylor rule; house prices; asset prices; financial imbalances; market turmoil; financial innovation;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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