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Ireland's Housing Boom: What has Driven it and Have Prices Overshot?

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  • David Rae
  • Paul van den Noord

Abstract

The Irish housing market is very buoyant. The housing boom is driven by strong economic growth, dynamic demographics and low interest rates. However, large tax advantages and relatively lenient credit policies by banks have also played their part, and prices may have become overvalued. To the extent that high house prices reflect favourable tax treatment, they may lead to economic inefficiencies by drawing excessive resources into residential construction. While a soft landing appears the most likely prospect, a disorderly correction of house prices would pose risks for macroeconomic and possibly financial stability. In this context, one policy lever available to the government would be a phased removal of the tax advantages associated with housing. In addition, banks should remain cautious in their lending and provisioning policies. L'envolée du marché irlandais du logement Le marché de l’immobilier est très dynamique en Irlande. L’essor du logement s’explique par la forte croissance économique, la dynamique démographique et la faiblesse des taux d’intérêt. Cependant, les importants avantages fiscaux et les politiques de crédit relativement libérales des banques ont aussi joué leur rôle et les prix sont désormais peut être surévalués. Dans la mesure où les prix élevés de l’immobilier reflètent un régime fiscal favorable, ils peuvent conduire à des inefficiences économiques en attirant des ressources excessives dans la construction résidentielle. Tandis qu’un atterrissage en douceur apparaît très probable, une correction désordonnée de ces prix ferait peser des risques sur la stabilité macroéconomique, voire financière. Dans ce contexte, un des leviers d’action à la disposition des autorités serait une suppression graduée des avantages fiscaux associés au logement. En outre, les banques devraient être incitées à faire preuve de prudence dans leurs politiques de prêt et de provisionnement.

Suggested Citation

  • David Rae & Paul van den Noord, 2006. "Ireland's Housing Boom: What has Driven it and Have Prices Overshot?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 492, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:492-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/752770732812
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "The Irish Mortgage Market: Stylised Facts, Negative Equity and Arrears," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-108, February.
    2. Connor, Gregory & Flavin, Thomas & O’Kelly, Brian, 2012. "The U.S. and Irish credit crises: Their distinctive differences and common features," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 60-79.
    3. Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2007. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland under the EMU," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(1-Spring), pages 78-92.
    4. Davor Kunovac & Enes Đozović & Gorana Lukinić & Andreja Pufnik, 2008. "Use of the Hedonic Method to Calculate an Index of Real Estate Prices in Croatia," Working Papers 19, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    5. Michal Hlavacek & Lubos Komarek, 2009. "Housing Price Bubbles and their Determinants in the Czech Republic and its Regions," Working Papers 2009/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    6. Iulia Siedschlag, 2008. "Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/3 edited by Morten Balling.
    7. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Luis Garicano & Tano Santos, 2013. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Eurozone," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 145-166, Summer.
    8. Eric Mayer & Johannes Gareis, 2013. "What Drives Ireland’s Housing Market? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 919-961, November.
    9. Honohan, Patrick & Donovan, Donal & Gorecki, Paul & Mottiar, Rafique, 2010. "The Irish Banking Crisis: Regulatory and Financial Stability Policy," MPRA Paper 24896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. O' Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, P. & Sweeney, John, 2013. "Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 385-397.
    11. Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2009. "The Determinants of House Prices and Construction: An Empirical Investigation of the Swiss Housing Economy," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 193-220.
    12. Kelly, Morgan, 2007. "On the likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), pages 42-54.
    13. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2007:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ahrend, Rudiger, 2010. "Monetary ease: A factor behind financial crises? Some evidence from OECD countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 4, pages 1-30.
    15. Barrett, Alan & Bergin, Adele & FitzGerald, John & Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2006. "Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Forecasts and Policy Analysis, Autumn Report 2006," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number sustat22.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    construction résidentielle; house prices; housing market; immobilier; marché immobilier; property tax; residential construction; taxe foncière;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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