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Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment

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  • Graeme O'Meara

Abstract

This study contributes to the ongoing debate over the causes of housing bubbles. The argument that excessively low interest rates were responsible for the run up in house prices over the last decade has received considerable attention in the literature. However, few papers have attempted to quantify the extent of house price overvaluation in countries that have seen housing booms and busts, in addition to quantifying the looseness of monetary policy. For a sample of 10 OECD countries, we estimate fundamental house prices using demand and supply side characteristics of the housing market. This is supplemented with analysis of price to rent ratios and fundamental price to rent ratios. Loose monetary policy is defined as the deviation of the short term interest rate from the rate which the Taylor rule would prescribe. The empirical results suggest that for some countries deviations from the Taylor rule played a role in the surge in house prices and that a monetary policy stance less discretionary and more closely aligned with a Taylor rule could curtail some of the imbalance in the housing market.

Suggested Citation

  • Graeme O'Meara, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment," Open Access publications 10197/6435, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/6435
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/6435
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing bubbles; Taylor rule; Monetary policy; Interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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