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Ireland in EMU: More Shocks, Less Insulation?

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  • Honohan, Patrick
  • Leddin, Anthony J

Abstract

Despite anchoring the Irish monetary system to a common zone-wide exchange rate and interest rate, EMU has triggered sizable exchange rate and especially interest rate shocks to the Irish economy (albeit not appreciably greater than those experienced under previous exchange rate regimes). Interest rate movements have deviated widely from what a standard Taylor monetary policy rule would have counseled - though here again the deviations have been no worse in this regard than those of the previous regime. The most important shock has been associated with the large and sustained initial fall in nominal interest rates as EMU began. Through mechanisms which we formally model, the interest rate fall has had a lasting effect on property prices, construction activity and on the capacity of the labour market to absorb sizable net immigration, despite a sharp deterioration in wage competitiveness since 2002. As the long drawn-out impact of this shock subsides, the failure of the wage-bargaining system promptly to claw back the loss of competitiveness resulting from exogenous exchange rate movements is increasingly likely to show up in weaker aggregate employment performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Honohan, Patrick & Leddin, Anthony J, 2005. "Ireland in EMU: More Shocks, Less Insulation?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5349
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    Cited by:

    1. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2015. "Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 137-154.
    2. Lane, Philip R., 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2007. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland under the EMU," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(1-Spring), pages 78-92.
    4. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2017. "Deleveraging in a Highly Indebted Property Market: Who does it and are there Implications for Household Consumption?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(1), pages 95-117, March.
    5. Theodoros S. Papaspyrou, 2007. "Economic Policy in EMU: Community Framework and National Strategies – focus on Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 04, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    6. Honohan, Patrick, 2009. "Resolving Ireland’s Banking Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 207-231.
    7. Graeme O'Meara, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 521-565.
    8. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:6:p:1019-1034 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Patrick Honohan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2006. "Ireland in EMU - More Shocks, Less Insulation?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 263-294.
    10. Tan, Senren & Jin, Zhuo & Wu, Fuke, 2015. "Arbitrage and leverage strategies in bubbles under synchronization risks and noise-trader risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 331-343.
    11. repec:eso:journl:v:47:y:2016:i:1:p:1-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Anthony J. Evans, 2011. "The Irish Economic ‘Miracle’: Celtic Tiger or Bengal Kitten?," Chapters,in: Institutions in Crisis, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Andrzej Toroj, 2009. "Macroeconomic adjustment and heterogeneity in the euro area," NBP Working Papers 54, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    14. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    15. van Ewijk, Saskia E. & Arnold, Ivo J.M., 2015. "Financial integration in the euro area: Pro-cyclical effects and economic convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 335-342.
    16. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & Seppo Honkapohja & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2007. "Chapter 2: Macroeonomic adjustment in the euro area – the cases of Ireland and Italy," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 59-72, February.
    17. Daragh Clancy & Rossana Merola, 2016. "ÉIRE Mod: A DSGE Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-31.
    18. Lane, Philip R., 2009. "A New Fiscal Strategy for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 233-253.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetric shocks; European Monetary Union; Ireland;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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