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Ireland in EMU: more shocks, less insulation?

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  • Patrick Honohan
  • Anthony Leddin

Abstract

Despite anchoring the Irish monetary system to a common zone-wide exchange rate and interest rate, EMU has triggered sizable exchange rate and especially interest rate shocks to the Irish economy (albeit not appreciably greater than those experienced under previous exchange rate regimes). Interest rate movements have deviated widely from what a standard Taylor monetary policy rule would have counseled – though here again the deviations have been no worse in this regard than those of the previous regime. The most important shock has been associated with the large and sustained initial fall in nominal interest rates as EMU began. Through mechanisms which we formally model, the interest rate fall has had a lasting effect on property prices, construction activity and on the capacity of the labour market to absorb sizable net immigration, despite a sharp deterioration in wage competitiveness since 2002. As the long drawn-out impact of this shock subsides, the failure of the wage-bargaining system promptly to claw back the loss of competitiveness resulting from exogenous exchange rate movements is increasingly likely to show up in weaker aggregate employment performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Honohan & Anthony Leddin, 2005. "Ireland in EMU: more shocks, less insulation?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp94, IIIS.
  • Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp94
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    2. Honohan, Patrick, 2009. "Resolving Ireland’s Banking Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 207-231.
    3. Graeme O'Meara, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 521-565.
    4. Moons, Cindy & Hellinckx, Kevin, 2019. "Did monetary policy fuel the housing bubble? An application to Ireland," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 294-315.
    5. Papaspyrou, Theodoros S., 2007. "Economic policy in EMU: community framework and national strategies - focus on Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5631, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Tan, Senren & Jin, Zhuo & Wu, Fuke, 2015. "Arbitrage and leverage strategies in bubbles under synchronization risks and noise-trader risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 331-343.
    7. Daragh Clancy & Rossana Merola, 2016. "ÉIRE Mod: A DSGE Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-31.
    8. Anthony J. Evans, 2011. "The Irish Economic ‘Miracle’: Celtic Tiger or Bengal Kitten?," Chapters, in: David Howden (ed.), Institutions in Crisis, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Andrzej Toroj, 2009. "Macroeconomic adjustment and heterogeneity in the euro area," NBP Working Papers 54, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    10. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    11. van Ewijk, Saskia E. & Arnold, Ivo J.M., 2015. "Financial integration in the euro area: Pro-cyclical effects and economic convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 335-342.
    12. Lane, Philip R., 2009. "A New Fiscal Strategy for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 233-253.
    13. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2015. "Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 137-154.
    14. Lane, Philip R., 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. John FitzGerald, 2019. "Contributing to Macro-Economic Policy in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(4), pages 613-623.
    16. Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2007. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland under the EMU," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(1-Spring), pages 78-92.
    17. Konopczak, Karolina & Welfe, Aleksander, 2017. "Convergence-driven inflation and the channels of its absorption," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1019-1034.
    18. Barry Frank, 2017. "The Central Bank’s harmonised competitiveness indicators: Users beware," Administration, Sciendo, vol. 65(4), pages 73-82, December.
    19. Patrick Honohan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2006. "Ireland in EMU - More Shocks, Less Insulation?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 263-294.
    20. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & Seppo Honkapohja & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2007. "Chapter 2: Macroeonomic adjustment in the euro area – the cases of Ireland and Italy," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 59-72, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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