IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this book or follow this series

Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area

  • Morten Balling
    ()

Registered editor(s):

There has recently been increased research and policy interest in the divergent macroeconomic performance in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Understanding the underlying factors of macroeconomic differentials, the source and transmission of shocks and the adjustment process in the euro area is important to appropriate economic policy in the EMU. In a monetary union, the single monetary policy can only address common shocks. In the absence of nominal interest and exchange rates as policy instruments, to adjust to asymmetric shocks – country specific shocks or idiosyncratic effects of common shocks, member countries have to resort to remaining tools of economic policy. In theory, the adjustment to asymmetric shocks and return to equilibrium can take place through four channels: a) market – driven price and output adjustment; b) policy induced fiscal adjustment; c) risk-sharing against country-specific shocks through fiscal transfers and financial integration; d) labour mobility. Temporary inflation and output growth differentials are likely in a common currency area since prices and output adjustment is required to absorb shocks. In the euro area, output growth and inflation differentials are also related to the ongoing catch - up process in some of the member countries. Persistent inflation differentials can have negative effects on incomes and investment and result in divergent competitiveness and monetary conditions in the participating countries. Furthermore, inappropriate use of national fiscal policy and real exchange rate adjustment can lead to poor macroeconomic performance. The objective of this paper is to analyse macroeconomic differentials and the adjustment in the euro area so far with the aim to draw lessons and policy implications for the better functioning of the EMU and euro areaenlargement. The questions we address are the following: What do we know about macroeconomic differentials in the euro area? Are they temporary or persistent? What factors underlie them? What is the likelihood of asymmetric shocks in the euro area and what are their main transmission channels? What policy issues related to the macroeconomic adjustment in the EMU are most important at this stage? The remainder of this study is organised as follows. In Section 2 we analyse the size, evolution, persistence and underlying factors of output growth and inflation differentials. Section 3 discusses the likelihood of asymmetric shocks and their transmission across the euro area countries. In particular, we analyse trade linkages, including intra- and extra-euro area trade, financial integration and business cycle synchronisation. In Section 4 we discuss a number of policy issues related to the macroeconomic adjustment in EMU which have gained increased interest recently. We start with the role and effects of real interest rate and competitiveness differentials as adjustment channels. We discuss next policy issues related to fiscal adjustment and the impact of fiscal shocks in the euro area countries. We then discuss labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism. Finally, Section 5 summarises the main findings and draws policy implications for the EMU and the euro area enlargement.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.suerf.org/download/studies/study20083.pdf
File Function: Main Text
Download Restriction: no

as
in new window

This book is provided by SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum in its series SUERF Studies with number 2008/3 and published in 2008.
ISBN: 978-3-902109-43-9
Handle: RePEc:erf:erfstu:50
Contact details of provider: Postal: SUERF c/o OeNB, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7216
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7298
Web page: http://www.suerf.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Postal: SUERF c/o OeNB, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Alan Ahearne & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2006. "The Euro: only for the agile," Policy Briefs 42, Bruegel.
  2. Michael ARTIS & Ana Beatriz C. GALVÃO & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2003. "The transmission mechanism in a changing world," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/18, European University Institute.
  3. Decressin, Jörg & Fatás, Antonio, 1994. "Regional Labour Market Dynamics in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, . "Financial Dependence and Growth," CRSP working papers 344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  6. Lane, Philip R., 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. John Muellbauer & Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," Economics Series Working Papers 276, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. E. Paul Durrenberger, 2005. "Labour," Chapters, in: A Handbook of Economic Anthropology, chapter 8 Edward Elgar.
  10. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta, 2005. "Regulation and Economic Performance: Product Market Reforms and Productivity in the OECD," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 460, OECD Publishing.
  11. Filippo Altissimo & Pierpaolo Benigno & Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela, 2005. "Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 11473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kpate ADJAOUTE & Jean-Pierre DANTHINE, 2004. "Equity Returns and Integration: Is Europe Changing?," FAME Research Paper Series rp117, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  13. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 02/197, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6511, Inter-American Development Bank.
  15. Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0587, European Central Bank.
  16. Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. John Fitz Gerald, 2006. "Lessons from 20 Years of Cohesion," Chapters, in: Competitiveness and Growth in Europe, chapter 4 Edward Elgar.
  18. n/a, 1997. "Filtered least squares and measurement error," NIESR Discussion Papers 210, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  19. Robert-Paul Berben & Kerstin Bernoth & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2007. "Households' response to wealth changes: do gins or losses make a difference?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 1, volume 25, pages 145-160 Bank for International Settlements.
  20. Matloob Piracha & Roger Vickerman, 2002. "Immigration, Labour Mobility and EU Enlargement," Studies in Economics 0209, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  21. Kpate Adjaouté, 2004. "Equity Returns and Integration: Is Europe Changing?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 555-570, Winter.
  22. Baker, Terence J. & Duffy, David & Shortall, Fergal, 1998. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, July 1998," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC19982, March.
  23. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2003. "Trade Structure, Industrial Structure, and International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 51-56, May.
  24. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
  25. Fatas, Antonio, 1997. "EMU: Countries or regions? Lessons from the EMS experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 743-751, April.
  26. Puhani, Patrick A., 1999. "Labour mobility - an adjustment mechanism in Euroland? Empirical evidence for Western Germany, France and Italy," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-47, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  27. Philip Lane & Sébastien Wälti, 2006. "The Euro and Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp139, IIIS.
  28. David Duffy & John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," Papers WP166, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  29. Valérie Chauvin & Sabine Le Bayon, 2005. "Logements : sommets atteints?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2823, Sciences Po.
  30. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
  31. Susanne Mundschenk & Michael H. Stierle & Ulrike Stierle-von Schütz & Iulia Traistaru, 2006. "Competitiveness and Growth in Europe: An Overview," Chapters, in: Competitiveness and Growth in Europe, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  32. Andrea Colciago & Tiziano Ropele & V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 2008. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 591-610, 08.
  33. Kpate ADJAOUTÉ & Jean-Pierre DANTHINE, 2003. "European Financial Integration and Equity Returns: A Theory-Based Assessment," FAME Research Paper Series rp84, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  34. David Rae & Paul van den Noord, 2006. "Ireland's Housing Boom: What has Driven it and Have Prices Overshot?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 492, OECD Publishing.
  35. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2006. "The role of financial marketsÕ openness in the transmission of shocks in Europe," NIESR Discussion Papers 1138, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  36. Duffy, David, 2002. "A Descriptive Analysis of the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2002(2-Summer), pages 1-16.
  37. Nicholai Benalal & Juan Luis Diaz del Hoyo & Beatrice Pierluigi & Nikiforos Vidalis, 2006. "Output growth differentials across the euro area countries - some stylised facts," Occasional Paper Series 45, European Central Bank.
  38. Matthieu Lemoine, 2006. "Annex A5 : A model of the stochastic convergence between euro area business cycles," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1461, Sciences Po.
  39. Scott Adams & David Neumark, 2005. "Living Wage Effects: New and Improved Evidence," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 19(1), pages 80-102, February.
  40. Jürgen von Hagen & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rolf Strauch, 2001. "Budgetary Consolidation in EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 148, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  41. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," Working Papers 2004-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
  42. Peter Hoeller & Claude Giorno & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2004. "One Money, One Cycle?: Making Monetary Union a Smoother Ride," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 401, OECD Publishing.
  43. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Vega, Juan Luis, 2006. "What effects is EMU having on the euro area and its member countries? An overview," Working Paper Series 0599, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erf:erfstu:50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dragana Popovic)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.