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The Transmission Mechanism in a Changing World

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Listed author(s):
  • Artis, Michael J
  • Galvão, Ana Beatriz C
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano

Abstract

This Paper aims at improving the understanding of the transmission of shocks across countries and how this transmission may have changed over time. By employing a model that allows for parameter changes across regimes, we show that transmission of shocks from the US to European countries may depend on the values of transition variables such as financial prices, exchange rates, international capital flows, trade links and monetary policy instruments. We also show that transmission mechanisms estimated with the proposed models have good performance in describing the 2001 downturn in some European countries as an effect of a US shock. More generally, the models have a good forecasting performance over short horizons.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4014.

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Date of creation: Aug 2003
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4014
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Keywords: cycles; europe; impulse response; non-linear VAR; shocks; transmission mechanism;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
  • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Ballabriga, Fernando & Sebastian, Miguel & Valles, Javier, 1999. "European asymmetries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 233-253, August.
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  6. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
  7. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  8. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
  9. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
  10. Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001. "The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486.
  11. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  12. Pedro PEREZ-VAZQUEZ & Denise OSBORN & Michael ARTIS, "undated". "The International Business Cycle in a Changing World:Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks," EcoMod2004 330600111, EcoMod.
  13. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
  14. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
  15. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 0027, European Central Bank.
  16. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
  17. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Rüffer, Rasmus & Vitale, Giovanni, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
  19. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 1999. "Sources of international business fluctuations: Country-specific shocks or worldwide shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 367-385, August.
  20. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  21. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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