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The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Yanqun Zhang

Abstract

The integration of China into the global economy is one of the most spectacular events in economic history. This paper investigates to what extent this process affects output growth and inflation in the advanced countries. A GVAR model is specified to explore interdependencies between business cycles in China and industrial countries, including the US, the euro area and Japan. For robustness, the results are compared to those obtained from leading structural models, such as NiGEM and OEF. Evidence is based on the responses to a Chinese demand shock arising from the recent fiscal stimulus program. The results show that the impact on output growth in the advanced economies can be quite substantial, especially for the Asian region. The expansionary effects in the US and the euro area responses are lower, as trade linkages are less intensive. The multipliers are also reduced by a sizeable effect on inflation, as Chinese firms participate in international production chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1151, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1151
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2016. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," Ruhr Economic Papers 622, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Ágnes Csermely & Péter Harasztosi & Gábor Pellényi, 2012. "Opportunities and challenges – the impact of Chinese competition on Hungarian manufacturing," Chapters,in: European Integration in a Global Economy, chapter 11, pages 106-118 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106.
    4. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "Прогнозування Реакції Економіки України На Економічні Шоки В Сусідніх Державах: Глобальна Векторна Авторегресійна Модель «Україна-Сусіди»
      [Forecasting the Responses of Ukraine to Economic Shocks in
      ," MPRA Paper 44717, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2012.
    5. Feldkircher, Martin & Korhonen, Iikka, 2012. "The rise of China and its implications for emerging markets : Evidence from a GVAR model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. repec:hhs:bofitp:2012_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2014. "On the relevance of exports for regional output growth in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(35), pages 4302-4308, December.
    8. Almansour, Aseel & Aslam, Aqib & Bluedorn, John & Duttagupta, Rupa, 2015. "How vulnerable are emerging markets to external shocks?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 460-483.
    9. Malte Rieth, 2015. "Can Central Banks Successfully Lean against Global Headwinds?," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 88, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Stracca, Livio, 2013. "The rise of China and India: blessing or curse for the advanced countries?," Working Paper Series 1620, European Central Bank.
    11. Salzmann, Leonard, 2018. "China's Economic Slowdown and International Inflation Dynamics," EconStor Preprints 176757, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    12. Martin Feldkircher & Iikka Korhonen, 2014. "The Rise of China and Its Implications for the Global Economy: Evidence from a Global Vector Autoregressive Model," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 61-89, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GVAR; Chinese economy; shock transmission;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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