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The rise of China and its implications for emerging markets : Evidence from a GVAR model

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  • Feldkircher, Martin
  • Korhonen, Iikka

Abstract

This paper studies empirically the role of China in the world economy. We examine both the way the Chinese economy reacts to selected exogenous macroeconomic shocks and the repercussions for the world economy of a shock emanating from China. With regard to the latter, we focus on the responses of emerging markets, in particular those in Europe. Based on a global VAR (GVAR) model and a new data set that excels in country coverage and covers the most recent time period including the global financial crisis, our results are threefold: First, we show that a +1% shock to Chinese output translates to a permanent increase of 1.2% in Chinese real GDP and a 0.1% to 0.5% rise in output for most large economies. The countries of Central Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) also experience an output rise of 0.2%, while countries in South-Eastern Europe see a permanent 0.1% reduction in output. Secondly, to benchmark the shock to Chinese output, we examine the response to a +1% shock to US GDP. The results show that the US economy remains dominant in the world economy despite the rapid rise of China in recent years. In this vein, output rises in advanced economies by 1% to 1.4% and in the CIS and CEE regions by 1.5% and 0.7% respectively. By contrast China seems to be little affected by the US shock. Finally, we examine the effect of a +50% hike in oil prices on China and emerging economies. As one of the largest oil exporters, Russia's real output increases by about 6%. In contrast, the surge in oil prices puts a drag on Chinese output, amounting to 4.5% in the long-run. JEL Classification: C32, F44, E32, O54 Keywords: China, macroeconomic shocks, foreign shock, GVAR, great recession

Suggested Citation

  • Feldkircher, Martin & Korhonen, Iikka, 2012. "The rise of China and its implications for emerging markets : Evidence from a GVAR model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2012_020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    2. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The great plunge in oil prices: causes, consequences, and policy responses," CAMA Working Papers 2015-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Minoas Koukouritakis & Athanasios Papadopoulos & Andreas Yiannopoulos, 2013. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European Countries: A VECMX Analysis," Working Papers 1302, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    5. Feldkircher, Martin & Korhonen, Iikka, 2012. "The rise of China and its implications for emerging markets : Evidence from a GVAR model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Dungey, Mardi & Vehbi, Tugrul & Martin, Charlton, 2014. "VAR modelling in the presence of China’s rise : an application to the Taiwanese economy," Working Papers 2014-09, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    7. Koukouritakis, Minoas & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2015. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European countries: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 129-154.
    8. Yan M Sun & Frigyes F Heinz & Giang Ho, 2013. "Cross-Country Linkages in Europe; A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 13/194, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    10. Martin Feldkircher & Iikka Korhonen, 2014. "The Rise of China and Its Implications for the Global Economy: Evidence from a Global Vector Autoregressive Model," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 61-89, February.
    11. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
    12. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kühnlenz, Markus, 2013. "China's role in global inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 07/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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