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The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence

Author Info

  • Knut Are Aastveit

    ()

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland

    ()

  • Leif Anders Thorsrud

    ()

Abstract

This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate and identify a three block FAVAR model with separate world, regional and domestic blocks and study the transmission of both global and regional shocks to four small open economies (Canada, New Zealand, Norway and UK). The results show that foreign shocks explain a major share of the variance in all countries, most so shocks that are common to the world. However, regional shocks also play an important role, explaining more than 20 percent of the variance in the variables. Hence in small open economies, the world is not enough. The regional factors impact the four countries differently, though, some through trade and some through consumer sentiment. Our findings of a strong transmission of both global and regional shocks to open economies are in sharp contrast to the evidence from recently developed open economy DSGE models.

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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School in its series Working Papers with number 0005.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0005
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Keywords: International transmission; world and region; small open economy; FAVAR; Business cycles;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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Cited by:

  1. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1013-1028, November.
  2. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.
  3. Drago Bergholt & Tommy Sveen, 2014. "Sectoral interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies," Working Paper 2014/04, Norges Bank.
  4. Drago Bergholt, 2015. "Foreign Shocks," Working Papers 0039, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  5. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014. "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in two-speed economies," Working Papers 0024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  6. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.
  7. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Foreign shocks in an estimated multi-sector model," Working Papers 0022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  8. Eyquem, Aurélien & Kamber, Güneş, 2014. "A Note On The Business Cycle Implications Of Trade In Intermediate Goods," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(05), pages 1172-1186, July.
  9. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy," CAMA Working Papers 2013-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  10. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Svatopluk Kapounek & Jitka Pomenkova, 2012. "Spurious synchronization of business cycles: Dynamic correlation analysis of V4 countries," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2012-22, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
  12. Aleksandra Hałka & Karol Szafranek, 2015. "Whose inflation is it anyway? The inflation spillovers between the euro area and small open economies," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 223, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.

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