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Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective

  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Ron P. Smith

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables, xit, to their foreign counterparts, x*it, and then consistently combined to form a Global VAR (GVAR). It is shown that the VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where over-identifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. This gives the system a transparent long-run theoretical structure. Similarly, short-run over-identifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. Alternatively, if one has less confidence in the short-run theory the dynamics can be left unrestricted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where x*it variables can be interpreted as proxies for global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated. This approach has been used in a wide variety of contexts and for a wide variety of purposes. The paper also provides some new results.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1659.

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Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1659
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  1. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Estimation and Inference in Large Multifactor Panels: Small Sample Results with an Application to Modelling of Asset Returns," Working Papers 536, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  4. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Gianluca Lagana & Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy In The Uk: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 77-98, 09.
  6. Pesaran,H.M. & Shin,Y., 1995. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9419, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Anthony Garratt & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2005. "Permanent vs Transitory Components and Economic Fundamentals," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0501, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Bjorn-Jakob Treutler, 2007. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 419-474 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
  11. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2006. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199296859, July.
  12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
  13. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2005. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New-Keynesian models," Working Paper Series 0491, European Central Bank.
  14. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2004. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis," IEPR Working Papers 04.6, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 345, CESifo Group Munich.
  19. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  20. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  21. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
  22. repec:oup:qjecon:v:120:y:2005:i:1:p:387-422 is not listed on IDEAS
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