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Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals

Author

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  • Donald Robertson

    (Faculty of Economics, Austin Robinson Building, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DD, UK)

  • Anthony Garratt

    (Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, London WC1E 7HX, UK)

  • Stephen Wright

    (Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, London WC1E 7HX, UK)

Abstract

Any non-stationary series can be decomposed into permanent (or 'trend') and transitory (or 'cycle') components. Typically some atheoretic pre-filtering procedure is applied to extract the permanent component. This paper argues that analysis of the fundamental underlying stationary economic processes should instead be central to this process. We present a new derivation of multivariate Beveridge-Nelson permanent and transitory components, whereby the latter can be derived explicitly as a weighting of observable stationary processes. This allows far clearer economic interpretations. Different assumptions on the fundamental stationary processes result in distinctly different results, but this reflects deep economic uncertainty. We illustrate with an example using Garratt et al.'s (2003a) small VECM model of the UK economy. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald Robertson & Anthony Garratt & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 521-542.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:21:y:2006:i:4:p:521-542
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.850
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Smith, Ron P. & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2007. "Monetary Policy Transmission and the Phillips Curve in a Global Context," Kiel Working Papers 1366, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Kai Liu, 2014. "Public Finances, Business Cycles and Structural Fiscal Balances," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1411, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Sven Schreiber, 2012. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in euro-area countries with co-integrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1315-1335, April.
    4. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2015. "The multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition with I(1) and I(2) series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 157-162.
    5. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2010. "Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 3081, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. John Geweke & Joel Horowitz & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," CESifo Working Paper Series 1870, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2009. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1481-1502, October.
    8. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    9. Razafindrabe, Tovonony M., 2016. "A multi-country DSGE model with incomplete exchange rate pass-through: An application for the Euro-area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 78-100.
    10. Antonio Ribba, 2011. "On some neglected implications of the Fisher effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 451-470, April.
    11. Adom, Philip Kofi & Insaidoo, Michael & Minlah, Michael Kaku & Abdallah, Abdul-Mumuni, 2017. "Does renewable energy concentration increase the variance/uncertainty in electricity prices in Africa?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 81-100.
    12. Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2014. "A multi-country DSGE model with incomplete Exchange Rate Passthrough: application for the Euro area," Working Papers 2014-83, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    13. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2009-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, September.
    16. Magdalena Zachłód-Jelec, 2010. "Interrelations between Consumption and Wealth in Poland," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(1), pages 37-58, January.
    17. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2015. "Trend Dominance in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Studies in Economics 1518, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    18. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-083 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    20. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    21. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder, 2016. "Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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