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Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals

  • Donald Robertson

    (Faculty of Economics, Austin Robinson Building, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DD, UK)

  • Anthony Garratt

    (Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, London WC1E 7HX, UK)

  • Stephen Wright

    (Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, London WC1E 7HX, UK)

Any non-stationary series can be decomposed into permanent (or 'trend') and transitory (or 'cycle') components. Typically some atheoretic pre-filtering procedure is applied to extract the permanent component. This paper argues that analysis of the fundamental underlying stationary economic processes should instead be central to this process. We present a new derivation of multivariate Beveridge-Nelson permanent and transitory components, whereby the latter can be derived explicitly as a weighting of observable stationary processes. This allows far clearer economic interpretations. Different assumptions on the fundamental stationary processes result in distinctly different results, but this reflects deep economic uncertainty. We illustrate with an example using Garratt et al.'s (2003a) small VECM model of the UK economy. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 521-542

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:21:y:2006:i:4:p:521-542
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  8. William J. Crowder & Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1999. "Identification, Long-Run Relations, and Fundamental Innovations in a Simple Cointegrated System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 109-121, February.
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  11. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
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  17. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
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