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Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK

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  • Cliff L. F. Attfield
  • Jonathan R. W. Temple

Abstract

Standard macroeconomic models suggest that the ‘great ratios’ of consumptionto output and investment to output should be stable functions of structural parameters. We examine whether the ratios are stationary for the US and UK, allowing for structural breaks that could reflect timevarying parameters. We find stronger evidence for stationarity than previous work. We then use the long-run restrictions associated with the stationarity of the great ratios to extract measures of trend output from the joint behaviour of consumption, investment and output. This approach isattractive because it uses information from several series without requiring restrictive assumptions.

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  • Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:75
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    1. The Demise of A "Great Ratio"
      by Dave Giles in Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog on 2014-12-27 23:58:00

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    3. Steve Ambler & Craig Alexander, 2015. "One Percent? For Real? Insights from Modern Growth Theory about Future Investment Returns," e-briefs 216, C.D. Howe Institute.
    4. Miguel A León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2012. "Non-Balanced Growth and Production Technology Estimation," Studies in Economics 1204, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    5. Ben-Gad, Michael, 2012. "The two sector endogenous growth model: An atlas," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 706-722.
    6. Luca Zamparelli, 2015. "Induced Innovation, Endogenous Technical Change and Income Distribution in a Labor-Constrained Model of Classical Growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 243-262, May.
    7. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Price, Simon & Petrova, Katerina, 2018. "Time varying cointegration and the UK Great Ratios," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 23320, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    8. Luca Zamparelli, 2011. "Induced Innovation, Endogenous Growth, and Income Distribution: a Model along Classical Lines," Working Papers CELEG 1102, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    9. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2015. "Production Technology Estimates and Balanced Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 40-65, February.
    10. Chang, Juin-Jen & Lin, Chang-Ching & Lin, Hsieh-Yu, 2016. "Great ratios and international openness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-121.
    11. Don Harding, 2020. "Econometric Foundations of the Great Ratios of Economics," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-300, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    12. Alain Galli, 2017. "How Reliable are Cointegration-Based Estimates for Wealth Effects on Consumption? Evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 437-479, October.
    13. Ekaterina Ponomareva & Alexandra Bozhechkova & Alexandr Knobel, 2012. "Factors of Economic Growth," Published Papers 172, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    14. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Petrova, Katerina & Price, Simon, 2020. "Time-varying cointegration with an application to the UK Great Ratios," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    15. Yicong Lin & Mingxuan Song, 2023. "Robust bootstrap inference for linear time-varying coefficient models: Some Monte Carlo evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-049/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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