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Did the Job Ladder Fail after the Great Recession?

In: Labor Markets in the Aftermath of the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Moscarini
  • Fabien Postel-Vinay

Abstract

We study employment reallocation across heterogeneous employers through the lens of a dynamic job-ladder model, where more productive employers spend more hiring effort and are more likely to succeed in hiring because they offer more. As a consequence, an employer's size is a relevant proxy for productivity. We exploit newly available U.S. data from JOLTS on employment flows by size of the establishment. Our parsimonious job ladder model fits the facts quite well, and implies `true' vacancy postings by size that are more in line with gross flows and intuition than JOLTS' actual measures of job openings, previously criticized by other authors. Focusing on the U.S. experience in and around the Great Recession, our main finding is that the job ladder stopped working in the GR and has not yet fully resumed.
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Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Did the Job Ladder Fail after the Great Recession?," NBER Chapters, in: Labor Markets in the Aftermath of the Great Recession, pages 55-93, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13279
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean‐Marc Robin, 2011. "On the Dynamics of Unemployment and Wage Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1327-1355, September.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Links and quotes for August 4, 2016: Hiring and productivity, the ethics of prenatal testing, and more
      by Sarah Gustafson in AEIdeas on 2016-08-04 22:30:47
    2. Hiring at firms, large and small
      by ? in FRED blog on 2016-08-04 18:00:06

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & John Haltiwanger, 2014. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Large and Small Employers," 2014 Meeting Papers 735, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Alessandro Gavazza & Simon Mongey & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Aggregate Recruiting Intensity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2088-2127, August.
    3. Helu Jiang & Juan M. Sanchez, 2016. "The Deleveraging of U.S. Households: Credit Card Debt over the Lifecycle," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 11, pages 1-2.
    4. Isaac Sorkin, 2018. "Ranking Firms Using Revealed Preference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 133(3), pages 1331-1393.
    5. Oznur Ozdamar & Eleftherios Giovanis & Sahizer Samuk, 2020. "State business relations and the dynamics of job flows in Egypt and Turkey," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 519-558, December.
    6. Brown, Alessio J.G. & Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2021. "The effects of productivity and benefits on unemployment: Breaking the link," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 967-980.
    7. Whitson, Jennifer & Wang, Cynthia S. & Kim, Joongseo & Cao, Jiyin & Scrimpshire, Alex, 2015. "Responses to normative and norm-violating behavior: Culture, job mobility, and social inclusion and exclusion," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 24-35.
    8. Berge, Wiljan van den, 2018. "Bad start, bad match? The early career effects of graduating in a recession for vocational and academic graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-96.
    9. Faccini, Renato & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "Bad Jobs and Low Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2015. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Employers by Firm Size and Firm Wage," Working Papers 15-13, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Hahn, Joyce K. & Hyatt, Henry R. & Janicki, Hubert P., 2021. "Job ladders and growth in earnings, hours, and wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2019. "Jobless recoveries: The interaction between financial and search frictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Giuseppe Berlingieri & Sara Calligaris & Chiara Criscuolo, 2018. "The Productivity-Wage Premium: Does Size Still Matter in a Service Economy?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 328-333, May.
    14. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2018. "Who Moves Up the Job Ladder?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(S1), pages 301-336.
    15. Monica Costa Dias & Robert Joyce & Fabien Postel‐Vinay & Xiaowei Xu, 2020. "The Challenges for Labour Market Policy during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 371-382, June.
    16. Marianna Kudlyak, 2015. "What We Know About Wage Adjustment During the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 225-244.
    17. E. Mark Curtis, 2014. "Who Loses Under Power Plant Cap-and-Trade Programs?," NBER Working Papers 20808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles: a Quantitative Exploration," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 135-160, January.
    19. Kevin Rinz, 2019. "Did Timing Matter? Life Cycle Differences in Effects of Exposure to the Great Recession," Working Papers 19-25, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    20. Florian Hoffmann & Shouyong Shi, 2016. "Burdett-Mortensen Model of On-the-Job Search with Two Sectors," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 108-134, January.
    21. Valeria Cirillo & Mario Pianta & Leopoldo Nascia, 2018. "Technology and Occupations in Business Cycles," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, February.
    22. Ismail Baydur & Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2020. "Job Duration and Match Characteristics over the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 33-53, July.
    23. Tulio A. Cravo, 2017. "Firm size and business cycles," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 371-371, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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