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Did the Job Ladder Fail after the Great Recession?

In: Labor Markets in the Aftermath of the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Moscarini
  • Fabien Postel-Vinay

Abstract

We study employment reallocation across heterogeneous employers through the lens of a dynamic job-ladder model, where more productive employers spend more hiring effort and are more likely to succeed in hiring because they offer more. As a consequence, an employer's size is a relevant proxy for productivity. We exploit newly available U.S. data from JOLTS on employment flows by size of the establishment. Our parsimonious job ladder model fits the facts quite well, and implies `true' vacancy postings by size that are more in line with gross flows and intuition than JOLTS' actual measures of job openings, previously criticized by other authors. Focusing on the U.S. experience in and around the Great Recession, our main finding is that the job ladder stopped working in the GR and has not yet fully resumed.
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Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Did the Job Ladder Fail after the Great Recession?," NBER Chapters, in: Labor Markets in the Aftermath of the Great Recession, pages 55-93, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13279
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean‐Marc Robin, 2011. "On the Dynamics of Unemployment and Wage Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1327-1355, September.
    2. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2295-2350, November.
    3. Guido Menzio & Shouyong Shi, 2011. "Efficient Search on the Job and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 468-510.
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j003nctkn is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Teresa C Fort & John Haltiwanger & Ron S Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 520-559, August.
    6. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622.
    7. Brown, Charles & Medoff, James, 1989. "The Employer Size-Wage Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1027-1059, October.
    8. Bruce C. Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2004. "Employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market: the complete picture of gross worker flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Burdett, Kenneth & Mortensen, Dale T, 1998. "Wage Differentials, Employer Size, and Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 257-273, May.
    10. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 347-361, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Links and quotes for August 4, 2016: Hiring and productivity, the ethics of prenatal testing, and more
      by Sarah Gustafson in AEIdeas on 2016-08-04 22:30:47
    2. Hiring at firms, large and small
      by ? in FRED blog on 2016-08-04 18:00:06

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marianna Kudlyak, 2015. "What We Know About Wage Adjustment During the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 225-244.
    2. E. Mark Curtis, 2014. "Who Loses Under Power Plant Cap-and-Trade Programs?," NBER Working Papers 20808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & John Haltiwanger, 2014. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Large and Small Employers," 2014 Meeting Papers 735, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Alessandro Gavazza & Simon Mongey & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Aggregate Recruiting Intensity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2088-2127, August.
    5. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles: a Quantitative Exploration," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 135-160, January.
    6. Helu Jiang & Juan M. Sanchez, 2016. "The Deleveraging of U.S. Households: Credit Card Debt over the Lifecycle," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 11, pages 1-2.
    7. Isaac Sorkin, 2018. "Ranking Firms Using Revealed Preference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 133(3), pages 1331-1393.
    8. Giuseppe Berlingieri & Sara Calligaris & Chiara Criscuolo, 2018. "The Productivity-Wage Premium: Does Size Still Matter in a Service Economy?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 328-333, May.
    9. Joyce Hahn & Henry Hyatt & Hubert Janicki, 2018. "Job Ladders and Growth in Earnings, Hours, and Wages," 2018 Meeting Papers 908, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Whitson, Jennifer & Wang, Cynthia S. & Kim, Joongseo & Cao, Jiyin & Scrimpshire, Alex, 2015. "Responses to normative and norm-violating behavior: Culture, job mobility, and social inclusion and exclusion," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 24-35.
    11. Berge, Wiljan van den, 2018. "Bad start, bad match? The early career effects of graduating in a recession for vocational and academic graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-96.
    12. Faccini, Renato & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "Bad Jobs and Low Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Kevin Rinz, 2019. "Did Timing Matter? Life Cycle Differences in Effects of Exposure to the Great Recession," Working Papers 19-25, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    14. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2015. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Employers by Firm Size and Firm Wage," Working Papers 15-13, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    15. Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2019. "Jobless recoveries: The interaction between financial and search frictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    16. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2018. "Who Moves Up the Job Ladder?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(S1), pages 301-336.
    17. Florian Hoffmann & Shouyong Shi, 2016. "Burdett-Mortensen Model of On-the-Job Search with Two Sectors," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 108-134, January.
    18. Valeria Cirillo & Mario Pianta & Leopoldo Nascia, 2018. "Technology and Occupations in Business Cycles," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, February.
    19. Ismail Baydur & Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2020. "Job Duration and Match Characteristics over the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 33-53, July.
    20. Tulio A. Cravo, 2017. "Firm size and business cycles," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 371-371, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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