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Wage Posting and Business Cycles: a Quantitative Exploration

Author

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  • Giuseppe Moscarini

    (Yale University)

  • Fabien Postel-Vinay

    (University College London)

Abstract

e provide a quantitative exploration of business cycles in a frictional labor market under contract-posting. The steady-state random search and wage-posting model of Burdett and Mortensen (1998) has become the canonical structural framework for empirical analysis of worker turnover and equilibrium wage dispersion. In this paper, we provide an efficient algorithm to simulate a dynamic stochastic equilibrium version of this model, the Stochastic Burdett-Mortensen model, and evaluate its performance against empirical evidence on fluctuations in unemployment, vacancies and wages. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles: a Quantitative Exploration," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 135-160, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:14-333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2015.11.001
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    1. Isabel Cairó & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2020. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor Supply Elasticities and Wage Rigidity," Working Papers 20-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Jacek Suda & Marek Antosiewicz, 2016. "Business cycles and on the job search," IBS Working Papers 07/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    3. Andrew Coleman & Guanyu Zheng, 2020. "Job-to-job transitions and the regional job ladder," Working Papers 2020/01, New Zealand Productivity Commission.
    4. João Pereira & Raul Ramos & Pedro S. Martins, 2025. "Wage Cyclicality and Labor Market Institutions," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 598-615, October.
    5. Andreas I. Mueller, 2017. "Separations, Sorting, and Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 2081-2107, July.
    6. GORYUNOV, Maxim, 2017. "Sorting when firms have size," Economics Working Papers MWP 2017/09, European University Institute.
    7. Isabel Cairo & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2022. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 197-216, January.
    8. Yuhang Zheng & Zhehao Huang & Tianpei Jiang, 2020. "Will the Economic Recession Inhibit the Out-of-Pocket Payment Willingness for Health Care?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-16, January.
    9. James Bessen & Erich Denk & Chen Meng, 2024. "Perpetuating wage inequality: evidence from salary history bans," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 22(3), pages 709-733, September.
    10. Richards, Timothy J. & Paudel, Ujjwol, 2025. "Minimum Wages and Employment," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361159, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Guo, Angela & Krolikowski, Pawel & Yang, Meifeng, 2023. "Displaced workers and the pandemic recession," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    12. Clémence Berson & Marta De Philippis & Eliana Viviano, 2020. "Job-to-job flows and wage dynamics in France and Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 563, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Cynthia L. Doniger, 2021. "What Can We Learn from Asynchronous Wage Changes?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-055r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 31 Mar 2022.
    14. Marta Lachowska & Alexandre Mas & Raffaele Saggio & Stephen A. Woodbury, 2022. "Wage Posting or Wage Bargaining? A Test Using Dual Jobholders," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 469-493.
    15. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Suda, 2021. "Are DSGE models irreparably flawed?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 227-252.
    16. Jacek Suda, 2016. "On the job search and working capital," IBS Working Papers 06/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    17. Chiara Mussida & Luca Zanin, 2020. "I found a better job opportunity! Voluntary job mobility of employees and temporary contracts before and after the great recession in France, Italy and Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 47-98, July.
    18. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 208-213, May.
    19. Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2016. "Introduction to the Special Issue in Honor of Dale Mortensen," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 1-3, January.
    20. Levente Erdelyi & Lajos Tamas Szabo, 2024. "Labour Flows in Hungary in 2002-2021 Based on a Comprehensive Set of Administrative Data," MNB Occasional Papers 2024/152, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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