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Wage Posting and Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Moscarini
  • Fabien Postel-Vinay

Abstract

The canonical model of job search and wage posting (Burdett and Mortensen, 1998) establishes a natural connection between the average wage growth in the economy and the pace of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions, predicting wage growth to be positively related to the pace of EE reallocation for all workers, but especially for stayers. We verify this empirically both with aggregate time series and with longitudinal micro data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). We argue that monetary authorities concerned with inflationary wage pressure should pay more attention directly to EE reallocation and less to the unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 208-213, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:5:p:208-13
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161051
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles: a Quantitative Exploration," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 135-160, January.
    2. Burdett, Kenneth & Mortensen, Dale T, 1998. "Wage Differentials, Employer Size, and Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 257-273, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Isabel Cairó & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2020. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor Supply Elasticities and Wage Rigidity," Working Papers 20-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2018. "Dynamic and Stochastic Search Equilibrium," 2018 Meeting Papers 1240, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Isabel Cairo & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2022. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 197-216, January.
    4. Yuhang Zheng & Zhehao Huang & Tianpei Jiang, 2020. "Will the Economic Recession Inhibit the Out-of-Pocket Payment Willingness for Health Care?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-16, January.
    5. James Bessen & Erich Denk & Chen Meng, 2024. "Perpetuating wage inequality: evidence from salary history bans," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 22(3), pages 709-733, September.
    6. Richards, Timothy J. & Paudel, Ujjwol, 2025. "Minimum Wages and Employment," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361159, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Bryson, Alex & Dale-Olsen, Harald, 2025. "Job search under changing labour taxes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. João Pereira & Raul Ramos & Pedro S. Martins, 2025. "Wage Cyclicality and Labor Market Institutions," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 598-615, October.
    9. Guo, Angela & Krolikowski, Pawel & Yang, Meifeng, 2023. "Displaced workers and the pandemic recession," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    10. Clémence Berson & Marta De Philippis & Eliana Viviano, 2020. "Job-to-job flows and wage dynamics in France and Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 563, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Jacek Suda & Marek Antosiewicz, 2016. "Business cycles and on the job search," IBS Working Papers 07/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    12. Cynthia L. Doniger, 2021. "What Can We Learn from Asynchronous Wage Changes?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-055r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 31 Mar 2022.
    13. Andrew Coleman & Guanyu Zheng, 2020. "Job-to-job transitions and the regional job ladder," Working Papers 2020/01, New Zealand Productivity Commission.
    14. Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2022. "Dynamic and Stochastic Search Equilibrium," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Marta Lachowska & Alexandre Mas & Raffaele Saggio & Stephen A. Woodbury, 2022. "Wage Posting or Wage Bargaining? A Test Using Dual Jobholders," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 469-493.
    16. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Suda, 2021. "Are DSGE models irreparably flawed?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 227-252.
    17. Guyonne Kalb & Jordy Meekes, 2019. "Wage Growth Distribution and Decline among Individuals: 2001-2017," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2019-03, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Jul 2019.
    18. Jacek Suda, 2016. "On the job search and working capital," IBS Working Papers 06/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    19. Chiara Mussida & Luca Zanin, 2020. "I found a better job opportunity! Voluntary job mobility of employees and temporary contracts before and after the great recession in France, Italy and Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 47-98, July.
    20. Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2016. "Introduction to the Special Issue in Honor of Dale Mortensen," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 1-3, January.
    21. Levente Erdelyi & Lajos Tamas Szabo, 2024. "Labour Flows in Hungary in 2002-2021 Based on a Comprehensive Set of Administrative Data," MNB Occasional Papers 2024/152, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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