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Recall and Unemployment

Author

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  • Shigeru Fujita
  • Giuseppe Moscarini

Abstract

Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) covering 1990-2011, we document that a surprisingly large number of workers return to their previous employer after a jobless spell and experience more favorable labor market outcomes than job switchers. Over 40% of all workers separating into unemployment regain employment at their previous employer; over a fifth of them are permanently separated workers who did not have any expectation of recall, unlike those on temporary layoff. Recalls are associated with much shorter unemployment duration and better wage changes. Negative duration dependence of unemployment nearly disappears once recalls are excluded. We also find that the probability of finding a new job is more procyclical and volatile than the probability of a recall. Incorporating this fact into an empirical matching function significantly alters its estimated elasticity and the time-series behavior of matching efficiency, especially during the Great Recession. We develop a canonical search-and-matching model with a recall option where new matches are mediated by a matching function, while recalls are free and triggered both by aggregate and job-specific shocks. The recall option is lost when the unemployed worker accepts a new job. A quantitative version of the model captures well our cross-sectional and cyclical facts through selection of recalled matches.

Suggested Citation

  • Shigeru Fujita & Giuseppe Moscarini, 2013. "Recall and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 19640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19640
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Gregory Jolivet & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Accounting For Endogeneity in Matching Function Estimation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 440-451, July.
    2. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1123-1167.
    3. John M. Abowd & Bryce E. Stephens & Lars Vilhuber & Fredrik Andersson & Kevin L. McKinney & Marc Roemer & Simon Woodcock, 2009. "The LEHD Infrastructure Files and the Creation of the Quarterly Workforce Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 149-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gomme, Paul & Lkhagvasuren, Damba, 2015. "Worker search effort as an amplification mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 106-122.
    5. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, August.
    6. Mark Bils & Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2011. "Worker Heterogeneity and Endogenous Separations in a Matching Model of Unemployment Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 128-154, January.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Unemployment dynamics
      by James_Hamilton in Econbrowser on 2014-05-08 02:54:52
    2. Recall and Unemployment
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2016-07-27 00:28:17

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jochen Mankart & Rigas Oikonomou, 2017. "Household Search and the Aggregate Labour Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(4), pages 1735-1788.
    2. Manudeep Bhuller & Andreas R. Kostol & Trond C. Vigtel, 2019. "How Broadband Internet Affects Labor Market Matching," CESifo Working Paper Series 8022, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2015. "Labor-Market Polarization over the Business Cycle," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 371-413.
    4. Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel & Lalé, Etienne, 2018. "The Ins and Outs of Involuntary Part-Time Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 11826, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Rainer Eppel & Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer, 2018. "Das Aussetzen von Beschäftigungsverhältnissen als betriebliche Strategie zum Ausgleich von Schwankungen des Personalbedarfs. Ein Update," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(11), pages 799-810, November.
    6. Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, "undated". "Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital," Staff Reports 908, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Joachim Hubmer, 2018. "The Job Ladder and its Implications for Earnings Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 172-194, July.
    8. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Etienne Lalé, 2016. "The Rise of Part-time Employment," Sciences Po publications 2016-04, Sciences Po.
    9. Hie Ahn & James Hamilton, 2016. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers id:11130, eSocialSciences.
    10. Rasmus Lentz & Jesper Bagger, 2009. "An Empirical Model of Wage Dispersion with Sorting," 2009 Meeting Papers 964, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Alessandro Gavazza & Simon Mongey & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Aggregate Recruiting Intensity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2088-2127, August.
    12. Hyatt, Henry R. & Spletzer, James R., 2016. "The shifting job tenure distribution," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 363-377.
    13. Fan, Yanqin & Liu, Ruixuan, 2018. "Partial identification and inference in censored quantile regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 1-38.
    14. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Shoag, Daniel & Ballance, Joshua, 2016. "Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 333-347.
    15. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.
    16. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Winkler, Roland, 2017. "Fiscal Policy and Occupational Employment Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 10466, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Ambrocio, Gene & Juselius, Mikael, 2020. "Dealing with the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic – what are the fiscal options?," BoF Economics Review 2/2020, Bank of Finland.
    18. Johannes Wieland & Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2015. "Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 339, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Güell, Maia & Lafuente, Cristina, 2019. "Unemployment Duration Variance Decomposition a la ABS: Evidence from Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 13610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles: a Quantitative Exploration," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 135-160, January.
    21. Edward P. Lazear & Kristin McCue, 2016. "Hires and Separations in Equilibrium," Working Papers 16-57, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    22. Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2014. "The cyclicality of job-to-job transitions and its implications for aggregate productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-17.
    23. Cristina Lafuente, 2018. "The best of the two worlds: assessing the use of administrative data for the study of employment," ESE Discussion Papers 286, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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