Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility
We analyse the ability of equity market-based distances-to-default and subordinated bond spreads to signal a material weakening in banks' financial condition. Using option pricing, we show that both indicators are complete and unbiased indicators of bank fragility. We empirically test these properties using a sample of EU banks. Two different econometric models are estimated: a series of logit-models, which were estimated for different time-leads, and a proportional hazard model. We find support in favour of using both the distance-to-default and spread as leading indicators of bank fragility, regardless of our econometric specification. However, while we find robust predictive performance of the distance-to-default between 6 to 18 months in advance, its predictive properties are quite poor closer to the default. In contrast, subordinated debt spreads seem to have signal value close to default only. We also find that the predictive power of spreads appears to be weakened by implicit safety nets. We find no such evidence for the distances-to-default. Further, we find support for the notion that the market-based predictors of default have predictive power even controlling for balance sheet information and that both indicators may complement each other. We interpret our finding as providing some measure of support for the use of market information in supervisor's early warning models.
Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 600 Atlantic Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02210|
Web page: http://www.bos.frb.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, .
"General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058),"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
1-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, . "General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Gropp, Reint & Richards, Anthony J., 2001.
"Rating agency actions and the pricing of debt and equity of European banks: What can we infer about private sector monitoring of bank soundness?,"
Working Paper Series
0076, European Central Bank.
- Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Rating Agency Actions and the Pricing of Debt and Equity of European Banks: What Can we Infer About Private Sector Monitoring of Bank Soundness?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(3), pages 373-398, November.
- anonymous, 1999. "Using subordinated debt as an instrument of market discipline," Staff Studies 172, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Julapa Jagtiani & George Kaufman & Catharine Lemieux, 1999. "Do markets discipline banks and bank holding companies? evidence from debt pricing," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jun.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 1998.
"Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-67, August.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
- Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "Subordinated debt as bank capital: a proposal for regulatory reform," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 40-53.
- Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001.
"Sub-debt yield spreads as bank risk measures,"
Working Paper Series
WP-01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Andrea Sironi, 2000.
"Testing for market discipline in the European banking industry: evidence from subordinated debt issues,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2000-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sironi, Andrea, 2003. " Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-72, June.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka, 2001.
"Deposit insurance and moral hazard: does the counterfactual matter?,"
Working Paper Series
0047, European Central Bank.
- Gropp, R. & Vesala, J., 2001. "Deposit Insurance and Moral Hazard: Does the Counterfactual Matter?," Papers 47, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Pierre Mella-Barral & William R M Perraudin, 1993.
"Strategic Debt Service,"
CEPR Financial Markets Paper
0039, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
- Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
- Rebecca Demsetz & Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "Banks with something to lose: the disciplinary role of franchise value," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 1-14.
- Ritchken, Peter & Thomson, James B. & DeGennaro, Ramon P. & Li, Anlong, 1993.
"On flexibility, capital structure and investment decisions for the insured bank,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 1133-1146, December.
- Peter H. Ritchken & James B. Thomson & Ramon P. DeGennaro & Anlong Li, 1991. "On flexibility, capital structure, and investment decisions for the insured bank," Working Paper 9110, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcus, Alan J & Shaked, Israel, 1984. "The Valuation of FDIC Deposit Insurance Using Option-pricing Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 446-60, November.
- Donald P. Morgan & Kevin J. Stiroh, 1999. "Bond market discipline of banks: is the market tough enough?," Staff Reports 95, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
- Mark Flannery, 2001. "The Faces of “Market Discipline”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 107-119, October.
- R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 1999. "The role of supervisory screens and econometric models in off-site surveillance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-56.
- Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-52, June.
- Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
- Robert R. Bliss & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Market discipline in the governance of U.S. Bank Holding Companies: monitoring vs. influencing," Working Paper Series WP-00-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Edward Altman & Anthony Saunders, 2000. "An Analysis and Critique of the BIS Proposal on Capital Adequacy and Ratings," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-084, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
- Anderson, Ronald W & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1996. "Design and Valuation of Debt Contracts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 37-68.
- Bergman, Yaacov Z & Grundy, Bruce D & Wiener, Zvi, 1996. " General Properties of Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1573-1610, December.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Smirlock, Michael & Kaufold, Howard, 1987. "Bank Foreign Lending, Mandatory Disclosure Rules, and the Reaction of Bank Stock Prices to the Mexican Debt Crisis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 347-64, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2002:x:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.