Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility
We analyse the ability of the distance to default and subordinated bond spreads to signal bank fragility in a sample of EU banks. We find leading properties for both indicators. The distance to default exhibits lead times of 6-18 months. Spreads have signal value close to problems only. We also find that implicit safety nets weaken the predictive power of spreads. Further, the results suggest complementarity between both indicators. We also examine the interaction of the indicators with other information and find that their additional information content may be small but not insignificant. The results suggest that market indicators reduce type II errors relative to predictions based on accounting information only.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001.
"Rating Agency Actions and the Pricing of Debt and Equity of European Banks: What Can we Infer About Private Sector Monitoring of Bank Soundness?,"
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(3), pages 373-398, November.
- Gropp, Reint & Richards, Anthony J., 2001. "Rating agency actions and the pricing of debt and equity of European banks: What can we infer about private sector monitoring of bank soundness?," Working Paper Series 0076, European Central Bank.
- Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001.
"Sub-debt yield spreads as bank risk measures,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
2001-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Gropp, R. & Vesala, J., 2001.
"Deposit Insurance and Moral Hazard: Does the Counterfactual Matter?,"
47, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka, 2001. "Deposit insurance and moral hazard: does the counterfactual matter?," Working Paper Series 0047, European Central Bank.
- R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 1999. "The role of supervisory screens and econometric models in off-site surveillance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-56.
- Mark Flannery, 2001. "The Faces of “Market Discipline”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 107-119, October.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Ritchken, Peter & Thomson, James B. & DeGennaro, Ramon P. & Li, Anlong, 1993.
"On flexibility, capital structure and investment decisions for the insured bank,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 1133-1146, December.
- Peter H. Ritchken & James B. Thomson & Ramon P. DeGennaro & Anlong Li, 1991. "On flexibility, capital structure, and investment decisions for the insured bank," Working Paper 9110, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Sironi, Andrea, 2003.
" Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-472, June.
- Andrea Sironi, 2000. "Testing for market discipline in the European banking industry: evidence from subordinated debt issues," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, "undated".
"General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058),"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
01-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, "undated". "General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "Subordinated debt as bank capital: a proposal for regulatory reform," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 40-53.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000.
"Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
- Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 1998. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
- Rebecca Demsetz & Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "Banks with something to lose: the disciplinary role of franchise value," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 1-14.
- anonymous, 1999. "Using subordinated debt as an instrument of market discipline," Staff Studies 172, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Edward Altman & Anthony Saunders, 2000. "An Analysis and Critique of the BIS Proposal on Capital Adequacy and Ratings," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-084, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Bergman, Yaacov Z & Grundy, Bruce D & Wiener, Zvi, 1996. " General Properties of Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1573-1610, December.
- Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
- Anderson, Ronald W & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1996. "Design and Valuation of Debt Contracts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 37-68.
- Pierre Mella-Barral & William R M Perraudin, 1993.
"Strategic Debt Service,"
CEPR Financial Markets Paper
0039, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
- Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
- Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
- Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
- Robert R. Bliss & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Market discipline in the governance of U.S. Bank Holding Companies: monitoring vs. influencing," Working Paper Series WP-00-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Donald P. Morgan & Kevin J. Stiroh, 1999. "Bond market discipline of banks: is the market tough enough?," Staff Reports 95, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Smirlock, Michael & Kaufold, Howard, 1987. "Bank Foreign Lending, Mandatory Disclosure Rules, and the Reaction of Bank Stock Prices to the Mexican Debt Crisis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 347-364, July.
- Julapa Jagtiani & George Kaufman & Catharine Lemieux, 1999. "Do markets discipline banks and bank holding companies? evidence from debt pricing," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jun.
- Marcus, Alan J & Shaked, Israel, 1984. "The Valuation of FDIC Deposit Insurance Using Option-pricing Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 446-460, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:2:p:399-428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.