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Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline

  • Reint Gropp
  • Jukka Vesala
  • Giuseppe Vulpes

As a theoretical matter, signals from the bond and equity markets satisfy minimal requirements for a useful indicator. Using option pricing formulas, it is shown that a distance to default measure, based on equity market value and equity volatility, increases with the market value of bank assets and decreases with bank leverage and equity volatility.

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File URL: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/04v10n2/0409Grop.pdf
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 53-62

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2004:i:sep:p:53-62:n:v.10no.2
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  1. Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, . "General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  2. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  3. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-52, June.
  4. Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
  6. anonymous, 1999. "Using subordinated debt as an instrument of market discipline," Staff Studies 172, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Diana Hancock & Myron L. Kwast, 2001. "Using subordinated debt to monitor bank holding companies: is it feasible?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Douglas Evanoff & Larry Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt Yield Spreads as Bank Risk Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 121-145, October.
  9. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
  10. Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Rating Agency Actions and the Pricing of Debt and Equity of European Banks: What Can we Infer About Private Sector Monitoring of Bank Soundness?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(3), pages 373-398, November.
  11. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  12. Bergman, Yaacov Z & Grundy, Bruce D & Wiener, Zvi, 1996. " General Properties of Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1573-1610, December.
  13. Diana Hancock & Myron Kwast, 2001. "Using Subordinated Debt to Monitor Bank Holding Companies: Is it Feasible?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 147-187, October.
  14. Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
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