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A Market Based Measure of Credit Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Knaup, M.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Wagner, W.B.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

We propose a new method for measuring the quality of banks credit portfolios. This method makes use of information impounded in bank share prices by exploiting differences in their sensitivity to credit default swap spreads of borrowers of varying quality. The method allows us to derive a credit risk indicator (CRI), which is the perceived share of high risk exposures in a bank's portfolio. We estimate CRIs for the 150 largest U.S. bank holding companies and find that they have strong predictive power for the BHCs' performance during the subprime crisis, even after controlling for a variety of traditional asset quality proxies. Interestingly, we also find that the BHCs' aggregate CRI did not deteriorate since the beginning of the subprime crisis. This suggests that the market was aware of their (average) exposure to high risk credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Knaup, M. & Wagner, W.B., 2009. "A Market Based Measure of Credit Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis," Discussion Paper 2009-35 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:a6e8a0c8-00de-45b7-bb02-2afbed2c5c58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luc Laeven & Harry Huizinga, 2009. "Accounting discretion of banks during a financial crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/207, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Calomiris, Charles W. & Nissim, Doron, 2014. "Crisis-related shifts in the market valuation of banking activities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 400-435.
    3. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 875-894.
    4. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 193-205.
    5. Silva Buston, Consuelo, 2016. "Active risk management and banking stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 203-215.
    6. Wagner, Wolf, 2010. "Measuring the tail risks of banks," Papers 97, World Trade Institute.
    7. Manganelli, Simone & Altunbas, Yener & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2011. "Bank risk during the financial crisis: do business models matter?," Working Paper Series 1394, European Central Bank.
    8. Baele, Lieven & De Bruyckere, Valerie & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2014. "Do stock markets discipline US Bank Holding Companies: Just monitoring, or also influencing?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 124-145.
    9. Hao Fang & Yang-Cheng Lu & Chi-Wei Su, 2013. "Impact of the Subprime Crisis on Commercial Banks’ Financial Performance," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(5), pages 593-614, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; asset quality; banks; subprime crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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