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Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market

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  • Jeffery D Amato

Abstract

Credit default swap (CDS) spreads compensate investors for expected loss, but they also contain risk premia because of investors' aversion to default risk. We estimate CDS risk premia and default risk aversion to have been highly volatile during 2002– 2005. Both measures appear to be related to fundamental macroeconomic factors, such as the stance of monetary policy, and technical market factors, such as issuance of collateralised debt obligations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffery D Amato, 2005. "Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:0512e
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    2. Franck Packer & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Contractual terms and CDS pricing," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    4. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 165-195.
    5. Jeffery D Amato & Jacob Gyntelberg, 2005. "CDS index tranches and the pricing of credit risk correlations," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & N. Rangaswamy & Siriporn Mcdowall, 2009. "Forecasting with X-12-Arima: International Tourist Arrivals to India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(1), pages 107-128.
    2. Tomas Klinger & Petr Teply, 2016. "The Nexus Between Systemic Risk and Sovereign Crises," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 50-69, February.
    3. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA and ARFIMA: International Tourist Arrivals to India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 147-162.
    4. Willems, Bert & Rumiantseva, Ina & Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "Cournot versus Supply Functions: What does the data tell us?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 38-47.
    5. repec:eee:quaeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:183-195 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
    7. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 60-82.
    8. Christoph Große Steffen & Maximilian Podstawski, 2016. "Ambiguity and Time-Varying Risk Aversion in Sovereign Debt Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1602, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    10. Große Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and non-fundamental debt crises: An ambiguity approach," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Knaup, M. & Wagner, W.B., 2009. "A Market Based Measure of Credit Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis," Discussion Paper 2009-35 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15008 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 236-251.
    14. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:629-639 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2017. "Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 629-639.
    16. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "Down Trend Forecasting Method with ARFIMA: International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(1), pages 143-150.
    17. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007-08," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1953-1962, November.
    18. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Norden, Lars & Wagner, Wolf, 2008. "Credit derivatives and loan pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2560-2569, December.
    20. Enrico Laghi & Michele Di Marcantonio & Eugenio D'Amico, 2014. "Estimating credit default swap spreads using accounting data, market quotes and credit ratings: the European Banks Case," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, pages 59-81.
    21. Beck, T.H.L. & Todorov, R.I. & Wagner, W.B., 2011. "Bank Supervision Going Global? A Cost-Benefit Analysis (Replaced by CentER DP 2012-059)," Discussion Paper 2011-127, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    22. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 193-205.
    23. Nikola Tarashev & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2006. "Risk premia across asset markets: information from option prices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    24. Beck, T.H.L. & Todorov, R.I. & Wagner, W.B., 2012. "Supervising Cross-Border Banks : Theory, Evidence and Policy (Revised version of CentER Discussion Paper 2011-127)," Discussion Paper 2012-059, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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