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Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market

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  • Jeffery D Amato

Abstract

Credit default swap (CDS) spreads compensate investors for expected loss, but they also contain risk premia because of investors' aversion to default risk. We estimate CDS risk premia and default risk aversion to have been highly volatile during 2002– 2005. Both measures appear to be related to fundamental macroeconomic factors, such as the stance of monetary policy, and technical market factors, such as issuance of collateralised debt obligations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffery D Amato, 2005. "Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:0512e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    2. Franck Packer & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Contractual terms and CDS pricing," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    4. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
    5. Jeffery D Amato & Jacob Gyntelberg, 2005. "CDS index tranches and the pricing of credit risk correlations," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & N. Rangaswamy & Siriporn Mcdowall, 2009. "Forecasting with X-12-Arima: International Tourist Arrivals to India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(1), pages 107-128.
    2. Tomas Klinger & Petr Teply, 2016. "The Nexus Between Systemic Risk and Sovereign Crises," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 50-69, February.
    3. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA and ARFIMA: International Tourist Arrivals to India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 147-162.
    4. Claußen, Arndt & Löhr, Sebastian & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2017. "Valuation of systematic risk in the cross-section of credit default swap spreads," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 183-195.
    5. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    6. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "Down Trend Forecasting Method with ARFIMA: International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(1), pages 143-150.
    7. Norden, Lars & Wagner, Wolf, 2008. "Credit derivatives and loan pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2560-2569, December.
    8. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 193-205.
    9. Nikola Tarashev & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2006. "Risk premia across asset markets: information from option prices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    10. Knaup, M. & Wagner, W.B., 2009. "A Market Based Measure of Credit Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis," Discussion Paper 2009-35 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15008 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    13. Beck, T.H.L. & Todorov, R.I. & Wagner, W.B., 2011. "Bank Supervision Going Global? A Cost-Benefit Analysis (Replaced by CentER DP 2012-059)," Discussion Paper 2011-127, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    15. Lei Zhao, 2018. "Market†based estimates of implicit government guarantees in European financial institutions," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(1), pages 79-112, January.
    16. Beck, T.H.L. & Todorov, R.I. & Wagner, W.B., 2012. "Supervising Cross-Border Banks : Theory, Evidence and Policy (Revised version of EBC Discussion Paper 2011-033)," Other publications TiSEM dfd16cc4-fe7a-4c89-997f-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Enrico Laghi & Michele Di Marcantonio & Eugenio D'Amico, 2014. "Estimating credit default swap spreads using accounting data, market quotes and credit ratings: the European Banks Case," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(2-3-4), pages 59-81.
    18. Christoph Große Steffen & Maximilian Podstawski, 2016. "Ambiguity and Time-Varying Risk Aversion in Sovereign Debt Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1602, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Beck, T.H.L. & Todorov, R.I. & Wagner, W.B., 2011. "Bank Supervision Going Global? A Cost-Benefit Analysis (Replaced by EBC DP 2012-015)," Other publications TiSEM 2c7d7637-bd3a-4a43-beac-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Beck, T.H.L. & Todorov, R.I. & Wagner, W.B., 2012. "Supervising Cross-Border Banks : Theory, Evidence and Policy (Revised version of CentER Discussion Paper 2011-127)," Other publications TiSEM 1aedf83e-1ca5-44b5-bc6d-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. Große Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and non-fundamental debt crises: An ambiguity approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2021. "Feeling the heat: Climate risks and the cost of sovereign borrowing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 920-936.
    23. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2017. "Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 629-639.
    24. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    25. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2009. "The Co†movement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: an Empirical Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 529-562, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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