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Explaining credit default swap spreads with equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms

Author

Listed:
  • Haibin Zhu
  • Benjamin Yibin Zhang

    (Fitch Ratings Inc.)

  • Hao Zhou

    (Federal Reserve Board - Risk Analysis Section)

Abstract

A structural model with stochastic volatility and jumps implies particular relationships between observed equity returns and credit spreads. This paper explores such effects in the credit default swap (CDS) market. We use a novel approach to identify the realized jumps of individual equity from high frequency data. Our empirical results suggest that volatility risk alone predicts 50% of CDS spread variation, while jump risk alone forecasts 19%. After controlling for credit ratings, macroeconomic conditions, and firms' balance sheet information, we can explain 77% of the total variation. Moreover, the marginal impacts of volatility and jump measures increase dramatically from investment grade to high-yield entities. The estimated nonlinear effects of volatility and jumps are in line with the model implied relationships between equity returns and credit spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Haibin Zhu & Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," BIS Working Papers 181, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:181
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E & Werker, Bas J M, 1998. "Estimation and Testing in Models Containing Both Jump and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 237-243, April.
    2. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. " Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    4. Meddahi, Nour & Mykland, Per & Shephard, Neil, 2011. "Realized Volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 1-1, January.
    5. Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997. " Strategic Debt Service," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-556, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Landschoot, Astrid Van, 2008. "Determinants of yield spread dynamics: Euro versus US dollar corporate bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2597-2605, December.
    2. Calice, Giovanni, 2011. "The Impact of Collateral Policies on Sovereign CDS Spreads," ECMI Papers 12234, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    3. Anderson, Ronald W. & Carverhill, Andrew, 2007. "Liquidity and Capital Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 6044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Scheicher, Martin & Raunig, Burkhard, 2008. "A value at risk analysis of credit default swaps," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Scheicher, Martin, 2008. "How has CDO market pricing changed during the turmoil? Evidence from CDS index tranches," Working Paper Series 910, European Central Bank.
    6. Eliana Angelini & Elisa Di Febo, 2014. "CDS Spreads: an Empirical Analysis on the Determinants," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(2), pages 70-87.
    7. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:152:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hasan, Iftekhar & Siddique, Akhtar & Sun, Xian, 2015. "Monitoring the “invisible” hand of market discipline: Capital adequacy revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 475-492.
    9. Stuart M. Turnbull & Jun Yang, 2008. "Default Dependence: The Equity Default Relationship," Staff Working Papers 08-1, Bank of Canada.
    10. Wang, Peipei & Bhar, Ramaprasad, 2014. "Information content in CDS spreads for equity returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 55-80.
    11. Tauchen, George & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Realized jumps on financial markets and predicting credit spreads," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 102-118, January.
    12. Jing-zhi Huang & Hao Zhou, 2008. "Specification analysis of structural credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Antonio Di Cesare & Giovanni Guazzarotti, 2010. "An analysis of the determinants of credit default swap spread changes before and during the subprime financial turmoil," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 749, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Das, Sanjiv R. & Hanouna, Paul & Sarin, Atulya, 2009. "Accounting-based versus market-based cross-sectional models of CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 719-730, April.
    15. Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Tu, Anthony H. & Wang, Kehluh, 2008. "Dependence structure between the credit default swap return and the kurtosis of the equity return distribution: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 259-271, July.
    16. Anderson, Ronald W. & Carverhill, Andrew, 2006. "Liquidity and capital structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24632, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Christopher Baum & Chi Wan, 2010. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and credit default swap spreads," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1163-1171.
    18. Hayette Gatfaoui, 2010. "Investigating the dependence structure between credit default swap spreads and the U.S. financial market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 511-535, October.
    19. Marc Peters & Hugues Pirotte, 2014. "Unveiling Sovereign Effects in European Banks CDS Spreads Variations," Working Papers CEB 14-018, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:14:y:2011:i:02:n:s0219024911006383 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Scheicher, Martin & Fender, Ingo, 2009. "The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices," Working Paper Series 1056, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural model; stochastic volatility; jumps; credit spread; credit default swap; nonlinear effect; high frequency data;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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