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An analysis of the determinants of credit default swap spread changes before and during the subprime financial turmoil

Author

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  • Antonio Di Cesare

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Giovanni Guazzarotti

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of credit default swap spread changes for a large sample of US non-financial companies over the period between January 2002 and March 2009. In our analysis we use variables that the literature has found have an impact on CDS spreads and, in order to account for possible non-linear effects, the theoretical CDS spreads predicted by the Merton model. We show that our set of variables is able to explain more than 50% of CDS spread variations both before and after July 2007, when the current financial turmoil began. We also document that since the onset of the crisis CDS spreads have become much more sensitive to the level of leverage while volatility has lost its importance. Using a principal component analysis we also show that since the beginning of the crisis CDS spread changes have been increasingly driven by a common factor, which cannot be explained by indicators of economic activity, uncertainty, and risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Di Cesare & Giovanni Guazzarotti, 2010. "An analysis of the determinants of credit default swap spread changes before and during the subprime financial turmoil," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 749, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_749_10
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2010/2010-0749/en_tema_749.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Carboni, 2011. "The sovereign credit default swap market: price discovery, volumes and links with banks' risk premia," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 821, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Di Addario, Sabrina & Vuri, Daniela, 2010. "Entrepreneurship and market size. The case of young college graduates in Italy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 848-858, October.
    3. Julian S. Leppin & Stefan Reitz, 2016. "The Role of a Changing Market Environment for Credit Default Swap Pricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 209-223, July.
    4. repec:wsi:afexxx:v:09:y:2014:i:02:n:s2010495214400089 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Eliana Angelini & Elisa Di Febo, 2014. "CDS Spreads: an Empirical Analysis on the Determinants," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(2), pages 70-87.
    6. Cornette, Marcia Millon & Mehran, Hamid & Pan, Kevin & Phan, Minh & Wei, Chenyang, 2014. "CDS and equity market reactions to stock issuances in the U.S. financial industry: evidence from the 2002-13 period," Staff Reports 697, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Dec 2014.
    7. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    8. Cathy Chen & Wolfgang Härdle, 2015. "Common factors in credit defaults swap markets," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 845-863, September.
    9. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
    10. Kapar, B. & Olmo, J., 2011. "The determinants of credit default swap spreads in the presence of structural breaks and counterparty risk," Working Papers 11/02, Department of Economics, City University London.
    11. Hertrich, Markus, 2015. "Does Credit Risk Impact Liquidity Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swap Markets," MPRA Paper 67837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Marc Peters & Hugues Pirotte, 2014. "Unveiling Sovereign Effects in European Banks CDS Spreads Variations," Working Papers CEB 14-018, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit default swaps; bond spreads; credit risk; Merton model;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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