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Understanding the term structure of credit default swap spreads

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  • Han, Bing
  • Zhou, Yi

Abstract

The shape of the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads displays large variations over time and across firms. Consistent with the predictions of structural models of credit risk, we find that the slope of CDS spread term structure increases with firm leverage and volatility, but decreases with the level and the slope of the Treasury yield curve. However, these variables together have rather limited explanatory power for CDS slope and there is a significant common component in the regression residuals. In addition, we find that CDS slope predicts future changes in the CDS spreads, even after controlling for the contemporaneous variables that determine changes in the CDS spreads according to the structural models. Our results suggest that while structural models are qualitatively useful for understanding the shape of credit term structure, there are missing factors that importantly affect the term structure of CDS spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Bing & Zhou, Yi, 2015. "Understanding the term structure of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:31:y:2015:i:c:p:18-35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.02.002
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    2. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2024. "Credit default swaps and corporate carbon emissions in Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2018. "Is Thailand’s credit default swap market linked to bond and stock markets? Evidence from the term structure of credit spreads," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 324-341.
    4. Alexander Blasberg & Rüdiger Kiesel & Luca Taschini, 2022. "Carbon Default Swap - Disentangling the Exposure to Carbon Risk through CDS," CESifo Working Paper Series 10016, CESifo.
    5. Ugolini, Andrea & Reboredo, Juan C. & Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier, 2024. "Is climate transition risk priced into corporate credit risk? Evidence from credit default swaps," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
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    7. Xiu Xu & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2019. "Dynamic credit default swap curves in a network topology," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 1705-1726, October.
    8. Paulo Pereira da Silva & Isabel Vieira, 2024. "Stock price informativeness and credit default swap trading," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2950-2970, July.
    9. Yao, Lianjun & Qiu, Yuting, 2024. "Market liquidity, credit maturity structure and asset mismatch in manufacturing firms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Zhou, Yi, 2022. "Option trading volume by moneyness, firm fundamentals, and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Liu, Jinyu & Zhong, Rui, 2017. "Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 53-66.
    12. Jean Helwege & Jing-Zhi Huang & Yuan Wang, 2017. "Debt Covenants and Cross-Sectional Equity Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1835-1854, June.
    13. Thuy Thi Thu Truong & Jungmu Kim, 2019. "Do Corporate Social Responsibility Activities Reduce Credit Risk? Short and Long-Term Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Gao, Feng & Li, Yubin & Wang, Xinjie & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2021. "Corporate social responsibility and the term structure of CDS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Matthias Pelster & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2018. "The determinants of CDS spreads: evidence from the model space," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 63-118, April.
    16. Pelster, Matthias & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2016. "The determinants of CDS spreads: Evidence from the model space," Discussion Papers 43/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure; Credit default swap; Credit risk; Structural models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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