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Is Climate Transition Risk Priced into Corporate Credit Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swaps

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Ugolini
  • Juan C. Reboredo
  • Javier Ojea Ferreiro

Abstract

We study whether the credit default swap (CDS) spreads of firms reflect the risk from climate transition. We first construct a climate transition risk (CTR) factor by using information on the vulnerability of a firm’s value to the transition to a low-carbon economy. We then document how this factor shifts the term structure of the CDS spreads of more vulnerable firms but not of less vulnerable firms. Considering the impact of different climate transition policies on the CTR factor, we find that these policies have asymmetric and significant economic impacts on the credit risk of more vulnerable firms, and negligible effects on other firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Ugolini & Juan C. Reboredo & Javier Ojea Ferreiro, 2023. "Is Climate Transition Risk Priced into Corporate Credit Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swaps," Staff Working Papers 23-38, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:23-38
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Credit risk management; Econometric and statistical methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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