IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v143y2025ics0140988325000714.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing climate transition risk: Evidence from European corporate CDS

Author

Listed:
  • Costola, Michele
  • Vozian, Katia

Abstract

The European low-carbon transition towards net-zero emissions by 2050 is gaining momentum. This study analyzes a major European firm’s climate-related transition indicators and their impact on CDS-implied credit risk across different time horizons. Results reveal market pricing of transition risk across all tenors, especially since the 2015 Paris Agreement. Carbon-intensive sectors like Electricity, Gas, and Mining face heightened transition risk pricing. Interestingly, the market may undervalue a company’s transition risk management efforts and participation in the EU ETS, possibly due to market inefficiencies. Predicting allowance prices’ impact on financial performance in the EU ETS market is notably challenging due to unique supply–demand dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Costola, Michele & Vozian, Katia, 2025. "Pricing climate transition risk: Evidence from European corporate CDS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:143:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325000714
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325000714
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108248?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emirhan Ilhan & Philipp Krueger & Zacharias Sautner & Laura T Starks, 2023. "Climate Risk Disclosure and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(7), pages 2617-2650.
    2. Zacharias Sautner & Laurence Van Lent & Grigory Vilkov & Ruishen Zhang, 2023. "Firm‐Level Climate Change Exposure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1449-1498, June.
    3. Thuy Thi Thu Truong & Jungmu Kim, 2019. "Do Corporate Social Responsibility Activities Reduce Credit Risk? Short and Long-Term Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-937, July.
    5. Monasterolo, Irene & de Angelis, Luca, 2020. "Blind to carbon risk? An analysis of stock market reaction to the Paris Agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    6. Oestreich, A. Marcel & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2015. "Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 294-308.
    7. Baiardi, Donatella & Morana, Claudio, 2021. "Climate change awareness: Empirical evidence for the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Monica Billio & Michele Costola & Iva Hristova & Carmelo Latino & Loriana Pelizzon, 2021. "Inside the ESG ratings: (Dis)agreement and performance," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1426-1445, September.
    9. Gao, Feng & Li, Yubin & Wang, Xinjie & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2021. "Corporate social responsibility and the term structure of CDS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    11. Zhang, Zehua & Zhao, Ran, 2022. "Carbon emission and credit default swaps," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    12. Ugolini, Andrea & Reboredo, Juan C. & Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier, 2024. "Is climate transition risk priced into corporate credit risk? Evidence from credit default swaps," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    13. Patrick Augustin & Yehuda Izhakian & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Ambiguity, Volatility, and Credit Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1618-1672.
    14. Ehlers, Torsten & Packer, Frank & de Greiff, Kathrin, 2022. "The pricing of carbon risk in syndicated loans: Which risks are priced and why?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Mu?ls & Laure B. de Preux & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2014. "Industry Compensation under Relocation Risk: A Firm-Level Analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2482-2508, August.
    16. Danilo Drago & Concetta Carnevale & Raffaele Gallo, 2019. "Do corporate social responsibility ratings affect credit default swap spreads?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 644-652, May.
    17. Blasberg, Alexander & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Taschini, Luca, 2023. "Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118092, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Christian Gollier, 2020. "Les entreprises et la finance face à leurs responsabilités climatiques," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(2), pages 89-104.
    19. Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 283-288, April.
    20. Carbone, Sante & Giuzio, Margherita & Kapadia, Sujit & Krämer, Johannes Sebastian & Nyholm, Ken & Vozian, Katia, 2021. "The low-carbon transition, climate commitments and firm credit risk," Working Paper Series 2631, European Central Bank.
    21. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2024. "Credit default swaps and corporate carbon emissions in Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    22. Manac, Radu-Dragomir & Banti, Chiara & Kellard, Neil, 2024. "How does standardization affect OTC markets in the long term? Evidence from the small bang reform in the CDS market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    23. Florian Berg & Julian F Kölbel & Roberto Rigobon, 2022. "Aggregate Confusion: The Divergence of ESG Ratings [Corporate social responsibility and firm risk: theory and empirical evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1315-1344.
    24. Marlene Amstad & Frank Packer, 2015. "Sovereign ratings of advanced and emerging economies after the crisis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    25. David M. Arseneau & Mitsuhiro Osada, 2023. "Central Bank Mandates and Communication about Climate Change: Evidence from A Large Dataset of Central Bank Speeches," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    26. Louis Daumas, 2024. "Financial stability, stranded assets and the low‐carbon transition – A critical review of the theoretical and applied literatures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 601-716, July.
    27. Dirk Tasche, . "The art of probability-of-default curve calibration," Journal of Credit Risk, Journal of Credit Risk.
    28. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    29. Bento, Nuno & Gianfrate, Gianfranco, 2020. "Determinants of internal carbon pricing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    30. Galil, Koresh & Shapir, Offer Moshe & Amiram, Dan & Ben-Zion, Uri, 2014. "The determinants of CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 271-282.
    31. Grundmann, Justus & Silberbach, Anna & Auria, Laura, 2023. "Including carbon taxation risk in Deutsche Bundesbank's in-house credit assessment system (ICAS): An empirical analysis," Technical Papers 02/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Emanuele Campiglio & Yannis Dafermos & Pierre Monnin & Josh Ryan-Collins & Guido Schotten & Misa Tanaka, 2018. "Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 462-468, June.
    33. Zacharias Sautner & Laurence van Lent & Grigory Vilkov & Ruishen Zhang, 2023. "Pricing Climate Change Exposure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7540-7561, December.
    34. Lee H. Seltzer & Laura Starks & Qifei Zhu, 2022. "Climate Regulatory Risk and Corporate Bonds," NBER Working Papers 29994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. André Höck & Christian Klein & Alexander Landau & Bernhard Zwergel, 2020. "The effect of environmental sustainability on credit risk," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 85-93, March.
    36. Patrick Augustin & Yehuda Izhakian & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Ambiguity, Volatility, and Credit Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1618-1672.
    37. Safiullah, Md & Kabir, Md. Nurul & Miah, Mohammad Dulal, 2021. "Carbon emissions and credit ratings," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    38. Brouwers, Roel & Schoubben, Frederiek & Van Hulle, Cynthia & Van Uytbergen, Steve, 2016. "The initial impact of EU ETS verification events on stock prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 138-149.
    39. Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Dunz, Nepomuk & Emambakhsh, Tina & Hennig, Tristan & Kaijser, Michiel & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Parisi, Laura & Salleo, Carmelo, 2021. "ECB’s economy-wide climate stress test," Occasional Paper Series 281, European Central Bank.
    40. Kabir, Md Nurul & Rahman, Sohanur & Rahman, Md Arifur & Anwar, Mumtaheena, 2021. "Carbon emissions and default risk: International evidence from firm-level data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ugolini, Andrea & Reboredo, Juan C. & Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier, 2024. "Is climate transition risk priced into corporate credit risk? Evidence from credit default swaps," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    2. Matilde Faralli & Francesco Ruggiero, 2025. "The Rise of Climate Risks: Evidence from Firms' Expected Default Frequencies," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 62, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    3. Helena Redondo & Elisa Aracil, 2024. "Climate‐related credit risk: Rethinking the credit risk framework," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 15(S1), pages 21-33, March.
    4. Marcinkowska, Monika & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Charteris, Ailie & Gajdka, Jerzy & Obojska, Lidia & Szczygielski, Jan Jakub, 2025. "Sustainability, energy finance and the role of central banks: A review of current insights and future research directions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Blasberg, Alexander & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Taschini, Luca, 2023. "Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118096, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Meles, Antonio & Salerno, Dario & Sampagnaro, Gabriele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo & Zhang, Jianing, 2023. "The influence of green innovation on default risk: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 692-710.
    7. Fliegel, Philip, 2025. "“Brown” Risk or “Green” Opportunity? The dynamic pricing of climate transition risk on global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Alessi, Lucia & Battiston, Stefano, 2022. "Two sides of the same coin: Green Taxonomy alignment versus transition risk in financial portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Alessi, Lucia & Ossola, Elisa & Panzica, Roberto, 2023. "When do investors go green? Evidence from a time-varying asset-pricing model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Yang, Junqi & Geng, Jiang-Bo, 2025. "Dissecting the financial impact of climate risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Daniel Ramos-García & Carmen López-Martín & Raquel Arguedas-Sanz, 2023. "Climate transition risk in determining credit risk: evidence from firms listed on the STOXX Europe 600 index," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2091-2114, November.
    12. Rahman, Sohanur, 2024. "The importance of green patents for CDS pricing: The role of environmental disclosures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Chen, Yiyang & Mamon, Rogemar & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2025. "Stock market returns and climate risk in the U.S," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Hao Zhao & Chuanqing Wu & Yang Wen, 2023. "Determinants of Corporate Fossil Energy Assets Impairment and Measurement of Stranded Assets Risk," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-14, August.
    15. He, Feng & Ren, Xingzi & Wang, Yueren & Lei, Xingfan, 2025. "Climate risk and corporate bond credit spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    16. Nguyen, Harvey & Pham, Anh Viet & Pham, Man Duy (Marty) & Pham, Mia Hang, 2025. "Climate change and corporate credit worthiness: International evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. repec:ces:ceswps:_10016 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Gourdel, Régis & Sydow, Matthias, 2022. "Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk," Working Paper Series 2757, European Central Bank.
    19. Birindelli, Giuliana & Miazza, Aline & Paimanova, Viktoriia & Palea, Vera, 2023. "Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Huang, Shupei & Wang, Xinya & Xue, Yi & Zhang, Xinzhi, 2025. "CEOS’ climate risk perception bias and corporate debt structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    21. Giulia Livieri & Davide Radi & Elia Smaniotto, 2023. "Pricing Transition Risk with a Jump-Diffusion Credit Risk Model: Evidences from the CDS market," Papers 2303.12483, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:143:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325000714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.