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Sovereign ratings of advanced and emerging economies after the crisis

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  • Marlene Amstad
  • Frank Packer

Abstract

The three major credit rating agencies have reassessed sovereign credit risks in the light of the Great Financial Crisis, increasing the transparency of their methodologies. This has resulted in material shifts in the rank-ordering of risks. Simple statistical models explain the lion's share of ratings differentials and capture some, but not all, of the methodological changes. Support is not found for the hypothesis of bias against emerging market economies (EMEs). Some rating agencies other than the big three offer alternative risk rankings that are more favourable to EMEs. However, these tend to be less closely aligned with the rankings provided by market prices and institutional investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Marlene Amstad & Frank Packer, 2015. "Sovereign ratings of advanced and emerging economies after the crisis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1512h
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2017. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?," NBER Working Papers 23134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John Kiff & Sylwia Nowak & Liliana B Schumacher, 2012. "Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation Into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings," IMF Working Papers 12/23, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
    4. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
    5. Claudio Borio & Frank Packer, 2004. "Assessing new perspectives on country risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    6. Flandreau, Marc & Gaillard, Norbert & Packer, Frank, 2011. "To err is human: US rating agencies and the interwar foreign government debt crisis," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 495-538, December.
    7. Christian Dembiermont & Michela Scatigna & Robert Szemere & Bruno Tissot, 2015. "A new database on general government debt," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    8. Frank Packer & Nikola Tarashev, 2011. "Rating methodologies for banks," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Annika Luisa Hofmann & Miguel Ferreira & João Lampreia, 2017. "Case Study: DBRS Sovereign Rating of Portugal. Analysis of Rating Methodology and Rating Decisions," GEE Papers 0073, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jul 2017.
    3. Özmen, Erdal & Doğanay Yaşar, Özge, 2016. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 93-101.
    4. Amstad, Marlene & Remolona, Eli & Shek, Jimmy, 2016. "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-48.
    5. Ozturk, Huseyin & Namli, Ersin & Erdal, Halil Ibrahim, 2016. "Modelling sovereign credit ratings: The accuracy of models in a heterogeneous sample," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 469-478.
    6. El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "Much ado about nothing: Sovereign ratings and government bond yields in the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Mahir Binici & Michael M Hutchison & Evan Weicheng Miao, 2018. "Are credit rating agencies discredited? Measuring market price effects from agency sovereign debt announcements," BIS Working Papers 704, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. repec:eee:glofin:v:36:y:2018:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:bis:bisbpc:96-06 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Marlene Amstad & Frank Packer & Jimmy Shek, 2018. "Does Sovereign Risk in Local and Foreign Currency Differ?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    11. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of rational inattention of rating agencies," IWH Discussion Papers 1/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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