What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?
In this paper we study the determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings using rating notations from the three main international rating agencies, for the period 1995-2005. We employ panel estimation and random effects ordered probit approaches to assess the explanatory power of several macroeconomic and public governance variables. Our results point to a good performance of the estimated models, across agencies and across the time dimension, as well as a good overall prediction power. Relevant explanatory variables for a country's credit rating are: GDP per capita, GDP growth, government debt, government effectiveness indicators, external debt, external reserves, and default history.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL|
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2006.
"Public Debt around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt,"
IDB Publications (Working Papers)
6710, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "Public debt around the world: a new data set of central government debt," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 19-24, January.
- Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "Public Debt around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt," Research Department Publications 4461, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996.
"Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings,"
9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Yannis M. Ioannides, 1993.
"Unemployment and Liquidity Constraints,"
_019, Yale University.
- V A Hajivassiliou & Y Ioannides, 1995. "Unemployment and Liquidity Constraints," CEP Discussion Papers dp0243, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Yannis M. Ioannides, 1999. "Unemployment and Liquidity Constraints," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9925, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Yannis M. Ioannides, 1995. "Unemployment and Liquidity Constraints," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1090, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Alexander W. Butler & Larry Fauver, 2006.
"Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings,"
Financial Management Association, vol. 35(3), Autumn.
- Alexander W. Butler & Larry Fauver, 2006. "Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 53-79, 09.
- Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Brooks, Robert & Yip, Angela Y.N., 2006.
"Determinants of sovereign ratings: A comparison of case-based reasoning and ordered probit approaches,"
Global Finance Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 136-154, September.
- Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Robert Brooks & Angela Y.N.Yip, 2005. "Determinants of Sovereign Ratings: A Comparison of Case-Based Reasoning and Ordered Probit Approaches," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- António Afonso, 2002. "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1999.
"Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-93, July.
- Christian B. Mulder & Brieuc Monfort, 2000. "Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirementson Lending to Emerging Market Economies; Possible Impact of a New Basel Accord," IMF Working Papers 00/69, International Monetary Fund.
- Sophia Rabe-Hesketh & Andrew Pickles & Colin Taylor, 2000. "Generalized linear latent and mixed models," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(53).
- Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July.
- Claudio Borio & Frank Packer, 2004. "Assessing new perspectives on country risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
- Guillaume R. Frechette, 2001. "Random-effects ordered probit," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(59).
- Guillaume R. Frechette, 2001. "Update to random-effects ordered probit," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(61).
- Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2002. "Sovereign credit ratings," Research Notes 02-1, Deutsche Bank Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp352006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vitor Escaria)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.