IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2013-01-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determination of Sovereign Rating: Factor Based Ordered Probit Models for Panel Data Analysis Modelling Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Dilek Teker

    (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Okan University, Turkey)

  • Aynur Pala

    (Research Analyst, Research Centre for Financial Risks,Okan University, Turkey.)

  • Oya Kent

    (Research Assistant, Research Centre for Financial Risks,Okan University, Turkey)

Abstract

The aim of this research is to compose a new rating methodology and provide credit notches to 23 countries which of 13 are developed and 10 are emerging. There are various literature that explains the determinants of credit ratings. Following the literature, we select 11 variables for our model which of 5 are eliminated by the factor analysis. We use specific dummies to investigate the structural breaks in time and cross section such as pre crises, post crises, BRIC membership, EU membership, OPEC membership, shipbuilder country and platinum reserved country. Then we run an ordered probit model and give credit notches to the countries. We use FITCH ratings as benchmark. Thus, at the end we compare the notches of FITCH with the ones we derive out of our estimated model.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilek Teker & Aynur Pala & Oya Kent, 2013. "Determination of Sovereign Rating: Factor Based Ordered Probit Models for Panel Data Analysis Modelling Framework," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 122-132.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2013-01-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/356/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/356/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Brooks, Robert & Yip, Angela Y.N., 2006. "Determinants of sovereign ratings: A comparison of case-based reasoning and ordered probit approaches," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 136-154, September.
    2. Alexander W. Butler & Larry Fauver, 2006. "Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 53-79, September.
    3. Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July.
    4. Hammer, P.L. & Kogan, A. & Lejeune, M.A., 2006. "Modeling country risk ratings using partial orders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 836-859, December.
    5. António Afonso, 2002. "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
    7. Christian B. Mulder & Brieuc Monfort, 2000. "Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirementson Lending to Emerging Market Economies; Possible Impact of a New Basel Accord," IMF Working Papers 00/69, International Monetary Fund.
    8. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    9. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julian Vasilev, 2014. "Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(4), pages 55-71, December.
    2. Annika Luisa Hofmann & Miguel Ferreira & João Lampreia, 2017. "Case Study: DBRS Sovereign Rating of Portugal. Analysis of Rating Methodology and Rating Decisions," GEE Papers 0073, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jul 2017.
    3. repec:spr:jqecon:v:15:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-016-0064-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Alexander M. Karminsky & Ella Khromova, 2016. "Modelling banks’ credit ratings of international agencies," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(3), pages 341-363, December.
    5. Mahmoud K. El-Jafari, 2013. "Palestinian Household Willingness and Ability to Pay for Public Utilities in The West Bank: The Case of Electricity and Water," Working Papers 784, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2013.
    6. LaGarda, Guillermo & Prat, Jordi & Solera, Marco & Beverinotti, Javier, 2016. "Debt and Credit Quality in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic," MPRA Paper 74163, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit notches; factor analysis; ordered probit model;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2013-01-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilhan Ozturk). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.