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Sovereign credit ratings

Author

Listed:
  • Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte

Abstract

This paper describes sovereign credit ratings in emerging markets both for a specific year and over time, using quantitative explanatory variables. It turns out that rating adjustments have been worse than what economic fundamentals justify for some countries and also more frequently altered, questioning the long-term properties of sovereign ratings. The results support the view that rating changes during the Asian crisis have been procyclical rather than counter-cyclical. Omitted variables, such as soundness of banking sector, social and political factors, can be one reason for this misalignment but cannot explain all.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2002. "Sovereign credit ratings," Research Notes 02-1, Deutsche Bank Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:021
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/40267/1/345120442.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Lejeune, Miguel & Lozin, Vadim & Lozina, Irina & Ragab, Ahmed & Yacout, Soumaya, 2019. "Recent advances in the theory and practice of Logical Analysis of Data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 1-15.
    2. P. Hammer & A. Kogan & M. Lejeune, 2011. "Reverse-engineering country risk ratings: a combinatorial non-recursive model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 185-213, August.
    3. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Jonas Sobott & Rüdiger Weber & Dorje Wulf, 2013. "Welche Aussagekraft haben Länderratings? Eine empirische Modellierung der Ratingvergabe während der europäischen Staatsschuldenkrise," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 2-31, February.
    4. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Dilek Teker & Aynur Pala & Oya Kent, 2013. "Determination of Sovereign Rating: Factor Based Ordered Probit Models for Panel Data Analysis Modelling Framework," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 122-132.
    6. Marco Langiulli, 2014. "Il possibile impatto dei rating emessi dalle agenzie e un’analisi dei giudizi sul debito sovrano emessi da Standard & Poor's. (The potential impact of credit rating agencies: an analysis of Standard &," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 67(268), pages 429-456.
    7. Bernal, Oscar & Girard, Alexandre & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2016. "The importance of conflicts of interest in attributing sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 48-66.
    8. Salvador, Carlos & Pastor, Jose Manuel & Fernández de Guevara, Juan, 2014. "Impact of the subprime crisis on bank ratings: The effect of the hardening of rating policies and worsening of solvency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 13-31.
    9. Zamira Oskonbaeva, 2020. "Determinants of credit ratings: evidence from panel discrete model," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 240-247.
    10. Oluyomi A. Osobajo & Adeola E. Akintunde, 2019. "Determinants of Sovereign Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(5), pages 142-166, May.
    11. Zoran Ivanovic & Sinisa Bogdan & Suzana Baresa, 2015. "Modeling and Estimating Shadow Sovereign Ratings," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(3), September.
    12. Emilian C. Miricescu & Lucian Ţâţu & Delia Cornea, 2016. "The Determinants of the Sovereign Debt Rating: Evidence for the European Union Countries," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(1), pages 175-188.
    13. MIRICESCU, Emilian - Constantin, 2014. "Investigating The Determinants Of Long-Run Sovereign Rating," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 18(3), pages 25-32.
    14. Šergo Zdravko & Gržinić Jasmina, 2018. "Does the International Tourism Industry Relax Sovereign Credit Ratings: The Case of Countries Most Reliant on Tourism," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 100-111, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic model; panel data; sovereign credit ratings; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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