IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/seejeb/v13y2018i2p100-111n7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does the International Tourism Industry Relax Sovereign Credit Ratings: The Case of Countries Most Reliant on Tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Šergo Zdravko

    (Senior Research Associate, Institute of Agriculture and Tourism Poreč,Poreč, Croatia)

  • Gržinić Jasmina

    (University Jurja Dobrile in Pula, Faculty of Economics and Tourism “Dr. Mijo Mirković”,Pula, Croatia)

Abstract

Sustainable tourism plays a dominant role in the economic well-being of some of the world’s countries, especially small ones. Tourism earnings account for a significant proportion of their GDP, and they have an overwhelming reliance on tourism as a source of service exports. The general trends in tourism earnings and volatilities in country risk ratings often go hand in hand, especially for small touristic countries in that region. The research presented in this paper provides a comparative assessment of the international country risk ratings and highlights the importance of their tourism earnings and tourism export. This study employs the ordered response and Poisson count panel data model for a sample of twenty-two countries most reliant on tourism, including Mediterranean countries. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the tourism determinants of sovereign credit ratings for those countries vary between different rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch’s). The key finding is that an increase in tourism earnings as a proportion of GDP and as the main export share in the total country export impairs the sovereign risk rating and turns out to be robust across the different methodologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Šergo Zdravko & Gržinić Jasmina, 2018. "Does the International Tourism Industry Relax Sovereign Credit Ratings: The Case of Countries Most Reliant on Tourism," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 100-111, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:seejeb:v:13:y:2018:i:2:p:100-111:n:7
    DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2018-0014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2018-0014
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/jeb-2018-0014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread , Credit Rating And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," Borradores de Economia 2336, Banco de la Republica.
    2. De Moor, Lieven & Luitel, Prabesh & Sercu, Piet & Vanpée, Rosanne, 2018. "Subjectivity in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 366-392.
    3. Yuzo Honda, 1985. "Testing the Error Components Model with Non-Normal Disturbances," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(4), pages 681-690.
    4. Marinda Pretorius & Ilsé Botha, 2016. "A Panel Ordered Response Model for Sovereign Credit Ratings in Africa," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 20-33.
    5. Dilek Teker & Aynur Pala & Oya Kent, 2013. "Determination of Sovereign Rating: Factor Based Ordered Probit Models for Panel Data Analysis Modelling Framework," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 122-132.
    6. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    7. Antonio Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2009. "Ordered response models for sovereign debt ratings," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 769-773.
    8. Ozturk, Huseyin & Namli, Ersin & Erdal, Halil Ibrahim, 2016. "Modelling sovereign credit ratings: The accuracy of models in a heterogeneous sample," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 469-478.
    9. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Constantin Mellios & Eric Paget-Blanc, 2006. "Which factors determine sovereign credit ratings?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 361-377.
    11. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2002. "Sovereign credit ratings," Research Notes 02-1, Deutsche Bank Research.
    12. Guido Candela & Paolo Figini, 2012. "The Economics of Tourism Destinations," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-20874-4, March.
    13. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-764, May.
    14. Canuto, Otaviano & Mohapatra, Sanket & Dilip Ratha, 2011. "Shadow Sovereign Ratings," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 63, pages 1-6, August.
    15. Luitel, Prabesh & Vanpée, Rosanne & De Moor, Lieven, 2016. "Pernicious effects: How the credit rating agencies disadvantage emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 286-298.
    16. Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres, 2004. "Determinants of Spread and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt:A Panel Data Study," Borradores de Economia 295, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Reusens, Peter & Croux, Christophe, 2017. "Sovereign credit rating determinants: A comparison before and after the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 108-121.
    18. Derya Gültekin-Karakaş & Mehtap Hisarcıklılar & Hüseyin Öztürk, 2011. "Sovereign Risk Ratings: Biased Toward Developed Countries?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 69-87, May.
    19. Siti Nurazira Mohd Daud & Jan M. Podivinsky, 2011. "An Accumulation of International Reserves and External Debt: Evidence from Developing Countries," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 229-249, September.
    20. Guido Candela & Paolo Figini, 2012. "The Economics of Tourism Destinations," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, in: The Economics of Tourism Destinations, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 73-130, Springer.
    21. Antonio Afonso, 2003. "Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 56-74, March.
    22. Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants of Spread and Credit Ratings and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Follow-Up Study Using Pooled Data Analysis," Borradores de Economia 296, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    23. Ratha, Dilip & De, Prabal K. & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2011. "Shadow Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 295-307, March.
    24. Erdem, Orhan & Varli, Yusuf, 2014. "Understanding the sovereign credit ratings of emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 42-57.
    25. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Moor, Lieven & Luitel, Prabesh & Sercu, Piet & Vanpée, Rosanne, 2018. "Subjectivity in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 366-392.
    2. Zoran Ivanovic & Sinisa Bogdan & Suzana Baresa, 2015. "Modeling and Estimating Shadow Sovereign Ratings," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(3), September.
    3. Zamira Oskonbaeva, 2020. "Determinants of credit ratings: evidence from panel discrete model," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 240-247.
    4. Slapnik, Ursula & Lončarski, Igor, 2023. "Understanding sovereign credit ratings: Text-based evidence from the credit rating reports," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Oliver Takawira & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2020. "Determinants of Sovereign Credit Ratings: An Application of the Naïve Bayes Classifier," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 8(4), pages 279-299.
    6. Yalta, A. Talha & Yalta, A. Yasemin, 2018. "Are credit rating agencies regionally biased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 682-694.
    7. Cuadros-Solas, Pedro Jesús & Salvador Muñoz, Carlos, 2022. "Disentangling the sources of sovereign rating adjustments: An examination of changes in rating policies following the GFC," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Oliver Takawira & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2022. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Analysis Using the Logistic Regression Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-24, March.
    9. A. Talha Yalta & Yasemin Yalta, 2018. "Are the Credit Rating Agencies Biased Against MENA Countries?," Working Papers 1274, Economic Research Forum, revised 19 Dec 2018.
    10. Abdulkerim Karaaslan & Kürşat Özgür Özden, 2017. "Forecasting Turkey’s Credit Ratings with Multivariate Grey Model and Grey Relational Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(3), pages 583-610, September.
    11. Teixeira, João C.A. & Silva, Francisco J.F. & Ferreira, Manuel B.S. & Vieira, José A.C., 2018. "Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-13.
    12. Emara, Noha, 2012. "Inflation volatility, financial institutions and sovereign debt rating," MPRA Paper 68688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska, 2018. "Banks credit ratings – is the size of the credit rating agency important?," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 32018, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    14. Panos Gavras & Sofoklis D. Vogiazas & Maria Koura, 2016. "An Empirical Assessment of Sovereign Country Risk in the Black Sea Region," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(1), pages 77-93, February.
    15. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Diego Silveira Pacheco Oliveira, 2019. "Central bank transparency and sovereign risk ratings: a panel data approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 417-433, April.
    16. Slapnik, Ursula & Lončarski, Igor, 2021. "On the information content of sovereign credit rating reports: Improving the predictability of rating transitions☆," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Laura Jaramillo, 2010. "Determinants of Investment Grade Status in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2010/117, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ratha, Dilip & De, Prabal K. & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2011. "Shadow Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 295-307, March.
    19. Patrycja Klusak & Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Moritz Kraemer & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2023. "Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7468-7491, December.
    20. Purificacion Parrado-Martinez & Antonio Parta Ureña & Pilar Gomez Fernandez-Aguado, 2014. "Usefulness of Financial Soundness Indicators for risk assessment: The case of EU member countries," Working Papers 14.01, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:seejeb:v:13:y:2018:i:2:p:100-111:n:7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.