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Shadow Sovereign Ratings

  • Otaviano Canuto
  • Sanket Mohapatra
  • Dilip Ratha

Sovereign ratings are a necessary condition for countries to fully access international capital. Even if the sovereign government is not issuing bonds, the sovereign rating often acts as a ceiling for the private sector and can influence its international capital market access. However, 58 developing countries are still not rated by Standard and Poors, Moodys, and Fitch, the three international credit rating agencies. This premise presents an exercise to predict shadow sovereign ratings to estimate where unrated countries would lie on the credit spectrum if they were rated. Contrary to popular perception, unrated countries are not necessarily at the bottom of the rating spectrum.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series World Bank Other Operational Studies with number 10080.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:10080
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  1. Aart Kraay & Vikram Nehru, 2006. "When Is External Debt Sustainable?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(3), pages 341-365.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 7410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Lee, Suk Hun, 1993. "Are the credit ratings assigned by bankers based on the willingness of LDC borrowers to repay?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 349-359, April.
  4. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Ratha, Dilip & De, Prabal & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2007. "Shadow sovereign ratings for unrated developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4269, The World Bank.
  6. Eduardo Borensztein & Patricio Valenzuela & Kevin Cowan, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings "Lite"? T+L3712he Impact of Sovereign Ratingson Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Alexander Lehmann, 2004. "Sovereign Credit Ratings and Private Capital Flows to LowÔÇÉincome Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 252-268.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
  10. Ashok Vir Bhatia, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology: An Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 02/170, International Monetary Fund.
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