IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Sovereign Credit Risk, Banks' Government Support, and Bank Stock Returns around the World

  • RICARDO CORREA
  • KUAN‐HUI LEE
  • HORACIO SAPRIZA
  • GUSTAVO A. SUAREZ

We explore the joint effect of expected government support to banks and changes in sovereign credit ratings on bank stock returns using data for banks in 37 countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that sovereign credit rating downgrades have a large negative effect on bank stock returns for those banks that are expected to receive stronger support from their governments. This result is stronger for banks in advanced economies where governments are better positioned to provide that support. Our results suggest that stock market investors perceive sovereigns and domestic banks as markedly interconnected, partly through government guarantees.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jmcb.12080
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 46 (2014)
Issue (Month): s1 (02)
Pages: 93-121

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:s1:p:93-121
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(2), pages 162-194, June.
  2. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
  3. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2007. "The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets; An Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/228, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Ferri, Giovanni & Liu, Li-Gang & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "The role of rating agency assessments in less developed countries: Impact of the proposed Basel guidelines," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 115-148, January.
  5. Ilia D. Dichev, 2001. "The Long-Run Stock Returns Following Bond Ratings Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 173-203, 02.
  6. Goh, Jeremy C & Ederington, Louis H, 1993. " Is a Bond Rating Downgrade Bad News, Good News, or No News for Stockholders?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 2001-08, December.
  7. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 448, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert W. & Hillier, David & Hillier, Joseph, 2004. "The national market impact of sovereign rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 233-250, January.
  10. Rene M. Stulz, 2005. "The Limits of Financial Globalization," NBER Working Papers 11070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
  12. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
  13. Luis Brandão Brandao Marques & Ricardo Correa & Horacio Sapriza, 2013. "International Evidence on Government Support and Risk Taking in the Banking Sector," IMF Working Papers 13/94, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Demirgüc-Kunt, A. & Huizinga, H.P., 2010. "Are Banks Too Big to Fail or Too Big to Save? International Evidence from Equity Prices and CDS Spreads," Discussion Paper 2010-59, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  15. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
  16. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings," NBER Working Papers 8738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Janus-headed salvation: Sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-2009," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 28-31, January.
  18. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
  19. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
  20. Mara Faccio, 2006. "Politically Connected Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 369-386, March.
  21. Eduardo Borensztein & Patricio Valenzuela & Kevin Cowan, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings “Lite†? The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July.
  23. Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, . "Law and Finance," Working Paper 19451, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  24. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-373, September.
  25. Kim, Suk-Joong & Wu, Eliza, 2008. "Sovereign credit ratings, capital flows and financial sector development in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 17-39, March.
  26. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
    [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
    ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. DellAriccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram G, 2005. "The Real Effect of Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 5088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08.
  29. Reisen, Helmut & Von Maltzan, Julia & Larraín, Guillermo, 1998. "Emerging market risk and sovereign credit ratings," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34380, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  30. Leuz, Christian & Nanda, Dhananjay & Wysocki, Peter D., 2003. "Earnings management and investor protection: an international comparison," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 505-527, September.
  31. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2004. "Liquidity and Financial Market Runs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 135-158.
  32. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David, 2010. "Sovereign Credit Ratings, Transparency and International Portfolio Flows," MPRA Paper 21118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Rigobon, Roberto, 2002. "The curse of non-investment grade countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 423-449, December.
  34. Dimitri Vayanos, 2004. "Flight to Quality, Flight to Liquidity, and the Pricing of Risk," NBER Working Papers 10327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Working Papers 2012-004, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  36. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity Black Holes," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18.
  37. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "The effect of bond rating changes on common stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89, September.
  38. Ferri, Giovanni & Li-Gang Liu, 2002. "Do Global Credit Rating Agencies Think Globally? The Information Content of Firm Ratings around the World," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 74, Royal Economic Society.
  39. Allaudeen Hameed & Wenjin Kang & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Stock Market Declines and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 257-293, 02.
  40. Huang, Roger D. & Stoll, Hans R., 2001. "Exchange rates and firms' liquidity: evidence from ADRs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 297-325, June.
  41. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:s1:p:93-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.