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Sovereign Credit Ratings, Transparency and International Portfolio Flows

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  • Gande, Amar
  • Parsley, David

Abstract

We examine the response of equity mutual fund flows to sovereign rating changes in a wide sample of countries during the crisis prone years from 1996-2002. We find that Sovereign downgrades are strongly associated with outflows of capital from the downgraded country while improvements in a country’s sovereign rating are not associated with discernable changes in equity flows. Transparency, as proxied by the level of corruption matters: more transparent (i.e., less corrupt) countries experience smaller outflows around downgrades. Moreover, abnormal flows around downgrades are consistent with a ‘flight to quality’ phenomenon. That is, less corrupt non-event countries are net recipients of capital inflows, and these inflows increase with the severity of the cumulative downgrade abroad. The results remain after controlling for country size, legal traditions, market liquidity, crisis versus non-crisis periods. Taken together, the results suggest that increasing transparency could mitigate some of the perceived negative effects often associated with global capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Gande, Amar & Parsley, David, 2010. "Sovereign Credit Ratings, Transparency and International Portfolio Flows," MPRA Paper 21118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21118
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Yang, Shu-Ling & Chang, Chong-Chuo, 2016. "Output spillovers from changes in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 48-63.
    2. R. G Gelos, 2011. "International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey," IMF Working Papers 11/92, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ian Koetsier & Jacob Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," DNB Working Papers 569, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Freitag L., 2014. "Procyclicality and path dependence of sovereign credit ratings: The example of Europe," Research Memorandum 020, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    5. Mirela Virgínia Perrella Scarabel & Mauro Rodrigues Júnior, 2011. "O Impacto De Mudanças De Rating Soberanosobre A Taxa De Câmbio Em Países Emergentes," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 157, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Lee, Kuan-Hui & Sapriza, Horacio & Wu, Yangru, 2016. "Sovereign debt ratings and stock liquidity around the World," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 99-112.
    7. Ricardo Correa & Kuan‐Hui Lee & Horacio Sapriza & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2014. "Sovereign Credit Risk, Banks' Government Support, and Bank Stock Returns around the World," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 93-121, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric effects; portfolio flows; sovereign rating agencies;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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