Sovereign credit risk, banks' government support, and bank stock returns around the world
We explore the joint effect of expected government support to banks and changes in sovereign credit ratings on bank stock returns using data for banks in 37 countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that sovereign credit rating downgrades have a large negative effect on bank stock returns for those banks that are expected to receive stronger support from their governments. This result is stronger for banks in advanced economies where governments are better-positioned to provide that support. Our results suggest that stock market investors perceive sovereigns and domestic banks as markedly interconnected, partly through government guarantees.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
- Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
- Ferri, Giovanni & Li-Gang Liu, 2002. "Do Global Credit Rating Agencies Think Globally? The Information Content of Firm Ratings around the World," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 74, Royal Economic Society.
- Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011.
"Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
16899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(2), pages 162-194, June.
- Bolton, Patrick & Jeanne, Olivier, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8358, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- DellAriccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram G, 2005.
"The Real Effect of Banking Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005.
"News spillovers in the sovereign debt market,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2007.
"The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets: An Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis,"
Research Department Publications
4513, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2010. "The determinants of corporate risk in emerging markets: an option-adjusted spread analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-74.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2007. "The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets: An Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6845, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2007. "The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets; An Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/228, International Monetary Fund.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002.
"Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility,"
Working Paper Series
0150, European Central Bank.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
- Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Luis Brandao-Marques & Ricardo Correa & Horacio Sapriza, 2013. "International evidence on government support and risk taking in the banking sector," International Finance Discussion Papers 1086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Janus-headed salvation: Sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-2009," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 28-31, January.
- Ferri, Giovanni & Liu, Li-Gang & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "The role of rating agency assessments in less developed countries: Impact of the proposed Basel guidelines," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 115-148, January.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Patricio Valenzuela & Kevin Cowan, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings "Lite"? T+L3712he Impact of Sovereign Ratingson Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund.
- Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Working Papers 2012-004, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.