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Liquidity Black Holes

  • Hyun Song Shin
  • Stephen Morris

Traders with short horizons and privately known trading limits interact in a market for a risky asset. Risk-averse, long horizon traders supply a downward sloping residual demand curve that face the short-horizon traders. When the price falls close to the trading limits of the short horizon traders, selling of the risky asset by any trader increases the incentives for others to sell. Sales becomes strategic complements between the short term traders, and payoffs analogous to a bank run are generated. A "liquidity black hole" is the analogue of the run outcome in a bank run model. Short horizon traders sell because others sell. Using global game techniques, this paper solves for the unique trigger point at which the liquidity black hole comes into existence. Empirical implications include the sharp V-shaped pattern in prices around the time of the liquidity black hole

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 644.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:644
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  1. Schnabel, Isabel & Shin, Hyun Song, 2001. "Foreshadowing LTCM: The Crisis of 1763," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-46, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  2. Hanno Lustig, 2004. "The Market Price of Aggregate Risk and the Wealth Distribution," UCLA Economics Online Papers 299, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2001. "Equilibrium and Welfare in Markets with Financially Constrained Arbitrageurs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1992. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 4193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
  6. Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988. "Liquidity And Market Structure," Papers 88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  7. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2002. "Bubbles and crashes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Benjamin H. Cohen & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Positive feedback trading under stress: Evidence from the US Treasury securities market," BIS Working Papers 122, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2002. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 8937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2005. "Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1825-1863, 08.
  14. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  15. Jon Danielsson & Hyun Song Shin & Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 2004. "The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 16628, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  16. Max Bruche, 2002. "A structural model of corporate bond pricing with co-ordination failure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24930, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  17. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Financial Market Runs," NBER Working Papers 9251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
  20. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "LAPM: A Liquidity-based Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 6673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Guillaume Plantin, 2003. "Self-Fulfilling Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp448, Financial Markets Group.
  22. Bengt Holmström, 2001. "LAPM: A Liquidity-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1837-1867, October.
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