IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnh/spaper/2784.html

Foreshadowing LTCM : the crisis of 1763

Author

Listed:
  • Schnabel, Isabel
  • Shin, Hyun Song

Abstract

The financial crisis that swept across northern Europe in 1763 bears an uncanny resemblance to more recent episodes of financial market turbulence - in particular, to the events of autumn 1998 when mature financial markets were caught in a severe liquidity crisis, culminating in the near collapse of Long-Term Capital Management. We highlight the salient features of the 1763 crisis, propose a stylized model of the events, and draw parallels between the events of 1763 and 1998. Whilst the financial landscape has changed fundamentally in the intervening two hundred or so years, the policy lessons have a resonance that transcend this gap in time. The potentially devastating effects of liquidity risk, the limits to hedging and financial engineering, and the importance of timely crisis management by the authorities are all lessons that have currency today as they did in 1763.

Suggested Citation

  • Schnabel, Isabel & Shin, Hyun Song, 2002. "Foreshadowing LTCM : the crisis of 1763," Papers 02-46, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2784
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2784/1/dp02_46.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Myron S. Scholes, 2000. "Crisis and Risk Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 17-21, May.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 1999. "A Review of Financial Market Events in Autumn 1998," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 12.
    3. Dong Lee & Bong-Chan Kho & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "U.S. Banks, Crises, and Bailouts: From Mexico to LTCM," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 28-31, May.
    4. Kahn, Charles M. & Roberds, William, 2007. "Transferability, finality, and debt settlement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 955-978, May.
    5. Martin Hellwig, 1995. "Systemic Aspects of Risk Management in Banking and Finance," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 131(IV), pages 723-737, December.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    7. C. H. Furfine, 2001. "The costs and benefits of moral suasion: Evidence from the rescue of long-term capital management," BIS Working Papers 103, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Financial Market Runs," NBER Working Papers 9251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Philippe Jorion, 2000. "Risk management lessons from Long‐Term Capital Management," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 6(3), pages 277-300, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity Black Holes," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18.
    2. Sydow, Matthias & Schilte, Aurore & Covi, Giovanni & Deipenbrock, Marija & Del Vecchio, Leonardo & Fiedor, Pawel & Fukker, Gábor & Gehrend, Max & Gourdel, Régis & Grassi, Alberto & Hilberg, Björn & Ka, 2024. "Shock amplification in an interconnected financial system of banks and investment funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Michael D. Bordo, 2011. "A Historical Perspective on the Crisis of 2007–08," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 2, pages 011-027, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Mr. Vance Martin & Ms. Renee Fry & Mr. Mardi Dungey, 2003. "Unanticipated Shocks and Systemic Influences: The Impact of Contagion in Global Equity Markets in 1998," IMF Working Papers 2003/084, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:ehl:wpaper:22336 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
    7. Bruneau, Gabriel & Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier & Plummer, Andrew & Tremblay, Marie-Christine & Witts, Aidan, 2025. "The interdependencies of Canadian financial institutions: An application to climate transition shocks," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 6(3).
    8. Michael D. Bordo, 2008. "An Historical Perspective on the Crisis of 2007-2008," NBER Working Papers 14569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Peter Temin & Joachim Voth, 2006. "Banking as an emerging technology: Hoare's Bank, 1702-1742," Economics Working Papers 1263, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ilhyock Shim & Goetz Von Peter, 2007. "Distress Selling and Asset Market Feedback," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(5), pages 243-291, December.
    2. Ernest Dautovic, 2019. "Has Regulatory Capital Made Banks Safer? Skin in the Game vs Moral Hazard," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 19.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    3. Naiwei Chen & Meiya Chang, 2013. "Financial Crisis and Corporate Liquidity: Implications for Emerging Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(1), pages 1-30, March.
    4. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    6. Evan Gatev & Til Schuermann & Philip E. Strahan, 2009. "Managing Bank Liquidity Risk: How Deposit-Loan Synergies Vary with Market Conditions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 995-1020.
    7. Craig H. Furfine & Eli M. Remolona, 2005. "Price discovery in a market under stress: the U.S. Treasury market in fall 1998," Working Paper Series WP-05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Mark Carey & René M. Stulz, 2007. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number care06-1, March.
    9. Winkler, Adalbert, 2001. "On the need for an international lender of last resort: Lessons from domestic financial markets," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 28, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-30, July.
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2005:i:9:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Donaldson, Jason Roderick & Piacentino, Giorgia & Thakor, Anjan, 2018. "Warehouse banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 250-267.
    13. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2195-2230, October.
    14. Kahn, Charles M. & Roberds, William, 2009. "Why pay? An introduction to payments economics," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, January.
    15. Evan Gatev & Philip Strahan, 2008. "Liquidity Risk and Syndicate Structure," NBER Working Papers 13802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Gilbert Peffer & Barbara Llacay, 2007. "Higher-Order Simulations: Strategic Investment Under Model-Induced Price Patterns," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(2), pages 1-6.
    17. Rajkamal Iyer & José-Luis Peydró, 2011. "Interbank Contagion at Work: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(4), pages 1337-1377.
    18. Martin Hellwig, 2018. "Bargeld, Giralgeld, Vollgeld: Zur Diskussion um das Geldwesen nach der Finanzkrise," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics 2018_10, Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics.
    19. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity Black Holes," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18.
    20. Gande, Amar & John, Kose & Senbet, Lemma W., 2008. "Bank incentives, economic specialization, and financial crises in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 707-732, September.
    21. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2784. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Katharina Rautenberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfmande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.