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Liquidity Black Holes

  • Stephen Morris

    ()

    (Yale University, Cowles Foundation)

  • Hyun Song Shin

    ()

    (University of London, London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE), Department of Accounting and Finance)

Traders with short horizons and privately known trading limits interact in a market for a risky asset. Risk-averse, long horizon traders supply a downward sloping residual demand curve that face the short-horizon traders. When the price falls close to the trading limits of the short horizon traders, selling of the risky asset by any trader increases the incentives for others to sell. Sales become mutually reinforcing among the short term traders, and payoffs analogous to a bank run are generated. A "liquidity black hole" is the analogue of the run outcome in a bank run model. Short horizon traders sell because others sell. Using global game techniques, this paper solves for the unique trigger point at which the liquidity black hole comes into existence. Empirical implications include the sharp V-shaped pattern in prices around the time of the liquidity black hole.

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Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm425.

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Date of creation: 28 Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm425
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://icf.som.yale.edu/
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  1. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CRSP working papers 531, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  2. Stephen Morris & Hyun S Shin, 2001. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001080, David K. Levine.
  3. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
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  5. Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Financial Market Runs," NBER Working Papers 9251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
  9. Benjamin H. Cohen & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Positive feedback trading under stress: Evidence from the US Treasury securities market," BIS Working Papers 122, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
  11. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2003. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 10071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Hanno Lustig & Yi-Li Chien, 2005. "The Market Price of Aggregate Risk and the Wealth Distribution," NBER Working Papers 11132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1992. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 4193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2004. "Predatory Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 4639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Schnabel, Isabel & Shin, Hyun Song, 2001. "Foreshadowing LTCM: The Crisis of 1763," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-46, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  17. Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2008. "How is macro news transmitted to exchange rates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 26-50, April.
  18. Max Bruche, 2002. "A structural model of corporate bond pricing with co-ordination failure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24930, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  19. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "LAPM: A Liquidity-based Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 6673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Danielsson, Jon & Shin, Hyun Song & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2004. "The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1069-1087, May.
  21. Bengt Holmström, 2001. "LAPM: A Liquidity-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1837-1867, October.
  22. Guillaume Plantin, 2003. "Self-Fulfilling Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp448, Financial Markets Group.
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