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Financial Market Runs

  • Antonio E. Bernardo
  • Ivo Welch

Our paper offers a minimalist model of a run on a financial market. The prime ingredient is that each risk-neutral investor fears having to liquidate after a run, but before prices can recover back to fundamental values. During the urn, only the risk-averse market-making sector is willing to absorb shares. To avoid having to possibly liquidate shares at the marginal post-run price in which case the market-making sector will already hold a lot of share inventory and thus be more reluctant to absorb additional shares all investors may prefer selling their shares into the market today at the average run price, thereby causing the run itself. Consequently, stock prices are low and risk is allocated inefficiently. Liquidity runs and crises are not caused by liquidity shocks per se, but by the fear of future liquidity shocks.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9251.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9251.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Publication status: published as Bernardo, Antonio and Ivo Welch. "Liquidity and Financial Market Runs." Quarterly Journal of Economics 119-1 (February 2004): 135-158.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9251
Note: AP CF
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  1. James Dow & Gary Gorton, 1993. "Arbitrage Chains," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0035, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
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  7. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1406, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2001. "International Liquidity Illusion: On the Risks of Sterilization," NBER Working Papers 8141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
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