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Risk in Dynamic Arbitrage: The Price Effects of Convergence Trading

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  • PÉTER KONDOR

Abstract

I develop an equilibrium model of convergence trading and its impact on asset prices. Arbitrageurs optimally decide how to allocate their limited capital over time. Their activity reduces price discrepancies, but their activity also generates losses with positive probability, even if the trading opportunity is fundamentally riskless. Moreover, prices of identical assets can diverge even if the constraints faced by arbitrageurs are not binding. Occasionally, total losses are large, making arbitrageurs' returns negatively skewed, consistent with the empirical evidence. The model also predicts comovement of arbitrageurs' expected returns and market liquidity. Copyright (c) 2009 the American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Péter Kondor, 2009. "Risk in Dynamic Arbitrage: The Price Effects of Convergence Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 631-655, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:64:y:2009:i:2:p:631-655
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernardo, Antonio E. & Welch, Ivo, 2013. "Leverage and preemptive selling of financial institutions," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 123-151.
    2. Liu, Jun & Timmermann, Allan G, 2009. "Risky Arbitrage Strategies: Optimal Portfolio Choice and Economic Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 7188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier.
    4. Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Hanno Lustig & Lei Zhang, 2017. "Complex Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 23476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alsayed, Hamad & McGroarty, Frank, 2012. "Arbitrage and the Law of One Price in the market for American depository receipts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1258-1276.
    6. Lagos, Ricardo & Rocheteau, Guillaume & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2011. "Crises and liquidity in over-the-counter markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2169-2205.
    7. Babatunde Buraimo & David Peel & Rob Simmons, 2013. "Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Benjamin Chabot & Eric Ghysels & Ravi Jagannathan, 2014. "Momentum Trading, Return Chasing, and Predictable Crashes," NBER Working Papers 20660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Patrick Bolton & Tano Santos & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2011. "Outside and Inside Liquidity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 259-321.
    11. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier.
    12. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2009. "Fear of Fire Sales and the Credit Freeze," NBER Working Papers 14925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kapadia, Nikunj & Pu, Xiaoling, 2012. "Limited arbitrage between equity and credit markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 542-564.
    14. Bachmann, Manuel, 2018. "Market Illiquidity, Credit Freezes and Endogenous Funding Constraints," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 5965, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    15. Manuel Bachmann, 2018. "Market Illiquidity, Credit Freezes and Endogenous Funding Constraints," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp255, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    16. Roman Kozhan & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Execution Risk in High-Frequency Arbitrage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(11), pages 2131-2149, November.
    17. García Iborra, Rafael & Howden, David, 2016. "Uses and Misuses of Arbitrage in Financial Theory, and a Suggested Alternative," MPRA Paper 79802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Gao, Lin & Süss, Stephan, 2015. "Market sentiment in commodity futures returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 84-103.
    19. Cai, Charlie X. & McGuinness, Paul B. & Zhang, Qi, 2011. "The pricing dynamics of cross-listed securities: The case of Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2123-2136, August.
    20. repec:sbe:breart:v:37:y:2017:i:1:a:62104 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Benos, Evangelos & Brugler, James & Hjalmarsson , Erik & Zikes , Filip, 2015. "Interactions among high-frequency traders," Bank of England working papers 523, Bank of England.

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