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When Everyone Runs for the Exit

  • Pedersen, Lasse Heje

The dangers of shouting ``fire'' in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk, whether to return to the theater or trade when the dust settles, and how much to pay for assets (or tickets) in light of this risk. These theoretical considerations shed light on the recent global liquidity crisis and, in particular, the quant event of 2007.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7436.

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Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7436
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  1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market liquidity and funding liquidity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24478, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Mark Mitchell & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Todd Pulvino, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," NBER Working Papers 12877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Duffie, Darrell & Garleanu, Nicolae Bogdan & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2006. "Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5491, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1994. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds and the Real Sector," Working papers 95-1, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
  6. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  7. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July.
  8. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," NBER Working Papers 10814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Liquidity and Risk Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 193-197, May.
  12. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 448, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  13. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
  14. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Pierre-Olivier Weill & Guillaume Rocheteau & Ricardo Lagos, 2007. "Crashes and Recoveries in Illiquid Markets," 2007 Meeting Papers 981, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2004. "Predatory Trading," NBER Working Papers 10755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
  18. Bruce Ian Carlin & Miguel Sousa Lobo & S. Viswanathan, 2007. "Episodic Liquidity Crises: Cooperative and Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2235-2274, October.
  19. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Research 146, National Bank of Belgium.
  20. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
  21. Coughenour, Jay F. & Saad, Mohsen M., 2004. "Common market makers and commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 37-69, July.
  22. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
  23. Dimitri Vayanos, 2004. "Flight to Quality, Flight to Liquidity, and the Pricing of Risk," NBER Working Papers 10327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
  25. Chenghuan Sean Chu & Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore, 2009. "Strategic Trading in Multiple Assets and the Effects on Market Volatiliy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 143-172, December.
  26. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
  27. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
  28. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2009. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," NBER Working Papers 15040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Acharya, Viral V & Gale, Douglas M & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2009. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," CEPR Discussion Papers 7122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. repec:clu:wpaper:0809-02 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Hasbrouck, Joel & Seppi, Duane J., 2001. "Common factors in prices, order flows, and liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 383-411, March.
  32. Huberman, G. & Halka, D., 1999. "Systematic Liquidity," Papers 99-9, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  33. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
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