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On the term structure of liquidity in the European sovereign bond market

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  • Conall O'Sullivan
  • Vassilios G. Papavassiliou

Abstract

The paper provides a high-frequency analysis of liquidity dynamics in the eurozone sovereign bond market over tranquil and crisis periods. We study time series of liquidity across the yield curve using high-frequency data from MTS, one of Europe’s leading electronic fixed-income trading platforms. We document flight-to-liquidity effects as investors prefer to trade on shorter-term benchmarks during liquidity dry-ups. We provide evidence of significant commonalities in spread and depth liquidity proxies which are weaker during the crisis period for both core and periphery economies although periphery countries display higher commonality than core countries during the crisis. We show that illiquidity of the periphery countries plays an important role in market dynamics and Granger causes illiquidity, volatility, returns, and CDS spreads across the maturity spectrum in both calm and crisis periods. Liquidity is priced both as a characteristic and as a risk factor even when controlling for credit risk, pointing to liquidity’s systematic dimension and importance.

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  • Conall O'Sullivan & Vassilios G. Papavassiliou, 2020. "On the term structure of liquidity in the European sovereign bond market," Open Access publications 10197/11287, Research Repository, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:rru:oapubs:10197/11287
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/11287
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    1. Kinateder, Harald & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2019. "Sovereign bond return prediction with realized higher moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 53-73.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Microstructure; Liquidity; Eurozone debt crisis; Sovereign bond markets; Common factors; Liquidity premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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