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Volatility Forecasting in European Government Bond Markets

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  • Özbekler, Ali Gencay
  • Kontonikas, Alexandros
  • Triantafyllou, Athanasios

Abstract

In this paper we examine the predictive power of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model on Treasury bond return volatility of major European government bond markets. The HAR-type volatility forecasting models show that short term and medium term volatility is a robust and statistically significant predictor of the term structure of intradayvolatility of bonds with maturities ranging from 1-year up to 30-years. When decomposing volatility into its continuous and discontinuous (jump) component, we find that the jump tail risk component is a significant predictor of bond market volatility. We lastly show that approximately half of the monetary policy announcement dates coincide with the presence of jumps in bond returns, and the pre-announcement drift is present in the bond market. Hence, the monetary policy announcements are important determinant of European bond market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Özbekler, Ali Gencay & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Volatility Forecasting in European Government Bond Markets," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 27362, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:esy:uefcwp:27362
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    Cited by:

    1. Semeyutin, Artur & Downing, Gareth, 2022. "Co-jumps in the U.S. interest rates and precious metals markets and their implications for investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Xueer Zhang & Jui‐Cheng Hung & Chien‐Liang Chiu, 2025. "Do Price Jumps Matter in Volatility Forecasts of US Treasury Futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(4), pages 326-342, April.
    3. Hassanniakalager, Arman & Baker, Paul L. & Platanakis, Emmanouil, 2024. "A False Discovery Rate approach to optimal volatility forecasting model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 881-902.

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