IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v72y2021icp423-437.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How external debt led to economic growth in South Asia: A policy perspective analysis from quantile regression

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsin, Muhammad
  • Ullah, Hafeez
  • Iqbal, Nadeem
  • Iqbal, Wasim
  • Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad

Abstract

The study analyzes the relationship between external debt and economic growth in the South Asian region. The panel ordinary least square (OLS), fixed effect, Quantile regression, and robust output regression were used to analyze the World Bank data from 2000 to 2018. South Asian countries, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Nepal, were included in the assessment. The analysis exhibited that external debt has a negative impact, and on the other hand, external debt stock has a positive impact on economic growth. The robust regression analysis substantiated the findings and yielded total external debt and external debt service impact of 39% and 31%, respectively. The study also showed that gross capital formation and trade openness have a positive effect on economic growth. Moreover, compared to domestic debt, Threshold analysis reveals that the external debt becomes a drag on growth and instigates a more substantial adverse effect on growth (due to the rising indebtedness of a country). Thus, the study serves as a base for policymakers and government officials to upsurge economic growth while reducing the foreign debt of the economy. Even though the presence of high borrowing costs, better institutional quality can help alleviate the adverse impact of external borrowing on growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsin, Muhammad & Ullah, Hafeez & Iqbal, Nadeem & Iqbal, Wasim & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "How external debt led to economic growth in South Asia: A policy perspective analysis from quantile regression," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 423-437.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:72:y:2021:i:c:p:423-437
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.09.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592621001302
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2021.09.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
    2. Zhang, Dongyang & Mohsin, Muhammad & Rasheed, Abdul Khaliq & Chang, Youngho & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "Public spending and green economic growth in BRI region: Mediating role of green finance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Zhu, Yanli & Sun, Yingnan & Xiang, Xinyu, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and enterprise value: Evidence from Chinese listed enterprises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    4. Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2020. "Insolvency regimes and firms' default risk under economic uncertainty and shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 180-197.
    5. Cheng, Feiyang & Chiao, Chaoshin & Fang, Zhenming & Wang, Chunfeng & Yao, Shouyu, 2020. "Raising short-term debt for long-term investment and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    6. Enrique R. Casares, 2015. "A relationship between external public debt and economic growth," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 30(2), pages 219-243.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    8. Pradhan, Rudra & Arvin, Mak & Norman, Neville & Bahmani, Sahar, 2020. "The dynamics of bondmarket development, stockmarket development and economic growth: Evidence from the G-20 countries," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 25(49), pages 119-147.
    9. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2020. "Sustainable Solutions for Green Financing and Investment in Renewable Energy Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, February.
    10. Ahmed, Abubakari & Gasparatos, Alexandros, 2020. "Multi-dimensional energy poverty patterns around industrial crop projects in Ghana: Enhancing the energy poverty alleviation potential of rural development strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Chen, Jinzhao & Quang, Thérèse, 2014. "The impact of international financial integration on economic growth: New evidence on threshold effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 475-489.
    12. Toshiyuki Sueyoshi & Mika Goto, 2017. "World trend in energy: an extension to DEA applied to energy and environment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, December.
    13. Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon & Young, Garry, 2018. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: Forecasting and structural identification," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 1-17.
    14. Liu, Xinghe & Wang, Enxian & Cai, Danting, 2019. "Green credit policy, property rights and debt financing: Quasi-natural experimental evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 129-135.
    15. Arvin, Mak B. & Pradhan, Rudra P. & Nair, Mahendhiran S., 2021. "Are there links between institutional quality, government expenditure, tax revenue and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and lower middle-income countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 468-489.
    16. Bruns, Stephan B. & Ioannidis, John P.A., 2020. "Determinants of economic growth: Different time different answer?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Luo, Weijie, 2020. "Inequality and government debt: Evidence from OECD panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    18. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sara E. Bennett & Mahendhiran Nair & John H. Hall, 2016. "Bond Market Development, Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 175-201, June.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Baljeet Singh, 2007. "Modelling The Relationship Between Defense Spending And Economic Growth For The Fiji Islands," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 391-401.
    20. Croce, M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S., 2021. "Persistent government debt and aggregate risk distribution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 347-367.
    21. Sérgio Lagoa, 2017. "Determinants of inflation differentials in the euro area: Is the New Keynesian Phillips Curve enough?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 20, pages 75-103, May.
    22. Yao, Wenyun & Zhang, Lei & Hu, Jianxiong, 2020. "Does having a semimandatory dividend policy enhance investor confidence? Research on dividend-financing behavior," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    23. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zakaria, Muhammad & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2018. "The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 282-301.
    24. Vujanović, Nina & Stojčić, Nebojša & Hashi, Iraj, 2021. "FDI spillovers and firm productivity during crisis: Empirical evidence from transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    25. Farhad Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on emerging and developed economies in a model incorporating monetary variables," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 51-75.
    26. Song, Dandan & Luo, Pengfei & Yang, Jingjing, 2020. "Investment and capital structure decisions with strategic debt service under asymmetric information," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    27. Chen, Hui & Xu, Yu & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Systematic risk, debt maturity, and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 770-799.
    28. Andreas Tischbirek, 2019. "Long‐term government debt and household portfolio composition," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), pages 1109-1151, July.
    29. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Rewilak, Johan M., 2020. "Recovering the finance-growth nexus," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    30. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "The way to induce private participation in green finance and investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 98-103.
    31. Uche-Soria, Manuel & Rodríguez-Monroy, Carlos, 2020. "Energy planning and its relationship to energy poverty in decision making. A first approach for the Canary Islands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    32. Jinzhao Chen & Thérèse Quang, 2012. "International Financial Integration and Economic Growth: New Evidence on Threshold Effects," PSE Working Papers halshs-00710139, HAL.
    33. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2021. "Debt relief and slow recovery: A decade after Lehman," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1036-1059.
    34. O’Sullivan, Conall & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2020. "On the term structure of liquidity in the European sovereign bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    35. Pochea, Maria Miruna & Niţoi, Mihai, 2021. "The impact of prudential toolkits on loan growth in Central and Eastern European banking systems," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    36. Yang, Zhendong & Abbas, Qaiser & Hanif, Imran & Alharthi, Majed & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Aziz, Babar & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2021. "Short- and long-run influence of energy utilization and economic growth on carbon discharge in emerging SREB economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1), pages 43-51.
    37. Moheddine Younsi & Amine Nafla, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(1), pages 238-260, March.
    38. Navarro-Ortiz, Josep & Sapena, Juan, 2020. "Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-153.
    39. Tahir, Muhammad & Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Afridi, Muhammad Asim, 2019. "Foreign inflows and economic growth: An emiprical study of the SAARC region," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    40. Huang, Zhen & Gao, Weiwei & Chen, Liying, 2020. "Does the external environment matter for the persistence of firms' debt policy?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    41. Nikolaos D. Philippas & Christos Avdoulas, 2020. "Financial literacy and financial well-being among generation-Z university students: Evidence from Greece," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4-5), pages 360-381, March.
    42. Tan, Yingxian & Luo, Pengfei & Yang, Jinqiang & Ling, Aifan, 2020. "Investment and capital structure decisions under strategic debt service with positive externalities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    43. Rudra Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sahar Bahmani & John H. Hall, 2019. "Attaining economic growth through financial development and foreign direct investment," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(6), pages 1201-1223, October.
    44. Khaled Abdalla Moh¡¯d AL-Tamimi & Mohammad Sulieman Jaradat, 2019. "Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Jordan for the Period (2010-2017)," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(4), pages 114-118, April.
    45. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    46. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    47. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Tax reform and public debt instability in developing countries: The trade openness and public revenue instability channels," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 54-67.
    48. Muhanji, Stella & Ojah, Kalu & Soumaré, Issouf, 2019. "How do natural resource endowment and institutional quality influence the nexus between external indebtedness and welfare in Africa?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 77-98.
    49. Casagrande, Sara & Dallago, Bruno, 2021. "Benchmarking institutional variety in the eurozone: An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    50. Mohsin, M. & Zhou, P. & Iqbal, N. & Shah, S.A.A., 2018. "Assessing oil supply security of South Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 438-447.
    51. Raihan, Selim & Osmani, S.R. & Khalily, M.A. Baqui, 2017. "The macro impact of microfinance in Bangladesh: A CGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-15.
    52. Li, Weiqing & Chien, Fengsheng & Hsu, Ching-Chi & Zhang, YunQian & Nawaz, Muhammad Atif & Iqbal, Sajid & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2021. "Nexus between energy poverty and energy efficiency: Estimating the long-run dynamics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    53. Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Sukaj, Rubena, 2021. "Identifying external debt shocks in low- and middle-income countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    54. Sérgio Lagoa, 2017. "Determinants of Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area: Is the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Enough?," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 75-103, May.
    55. Makun, Keshmeer, 2021. "External debt and economic growth in Pacific Island countries: A linear and nonlinear analysis of Fiji Islands," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    56. Goodell, John W. & Goyal, Abhinav, 2018. "What determines debt structure in emerging markets: Transaction costs or public monitoring?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 184-195.
    57. Tiep, Nguyen Cong & Wang, Mengqi & Mohsin, Muhammad & Kamran, Hafiz Waqas & Yazdi, Farzaneh Ahmadian, 2021. "An assessment of power sector reforms and utility performance to strengthen consumer self-confidence towards private investment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 676-689.
    58. Liaqat Ali & Muhammad Aslam & Muhammad Imran Qureshi & Yaqoub Ahmed Khan & Shafiq Ur Rehman & Ghulam Farid & Shaofang Hong, 2020. "Commutativity of MA-Semirings with Involution through Generalized Derivations," Journal of Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-8, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fengsheng Chien & Ka Yin Chau & Talla M. Aldeehani & Pham Quang Huy & Luc Phan Tan & Muhammad Mohsin, 2022. "Does external debt as a new determinants of fiscal policy influence sustainable economic growth: implications after COVID-19," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1717-1737, August.
    2. Zhang, Yong & Liu, Zhen & Baloch, Zulfiqar Ali, 2022. "Combining effects of private participation and green finance for renewable energy: Growth of economy as mediating tool," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1028-1036.
    3. Wei, Xiaobo & Mohsin, Muhammad & Zhang, Qiongxin, 2022. "Role of foreign direct investment and economic growth in renewable energy development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 828-837.
    4. Huang, Shi-Zheng, 2022. "Do green financing and industrial structure matter for green economic recovery? Fresh empirical insights from Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 61-73.
    5. Xu, Nuo & Kasimov, Ikboljon & Wang, Yanan, 2022. "Unlocking private investment as a new determinant of green finance for renewable development in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1121-1130.
    6. Lan, Jing & Khan, Sufyan Ullah & Sadiq, Muhammad & Chien, Fengsheng & Baloch, Zulfiqar Ali, 2022. "Evaluating energy poverty and its effects using multi-dimensional based DEA-like mathematical composite indicator approach: Findings from Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    7. Ma, Cong & Cheok, Mui Yee, 2022. "The impact of financing role and organizational culture in small and medium enterprises: Developing business strategies for economic recovery," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 26-38.
    8. Bai, Xiao & Wang, Kuan-Ting & Tran, Trung Kien & Sadiq, Muhammad & Trung, Lam Minh & Khudoykulov, Khurshid, 2022. "Measuring China’s green economic recovery and energy environment sustainability: Econometric analysis of sustainable development goals," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 768-779.
    9. Fan, Qiuyan & Hajiyeva, Aytan Merdan, 2022. "Nexus between energy efficiency finance and renewable energy development: Empirical evidence from G-7 economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1077-1086.
    10. Liu, Hongda & Huang, Feipeng & Huang, Jialiang, 2022. "Measuring the coordination decision of renewable energy as a natural resource contracts based on rights structure and corporate social responsibility from economic recovery," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Zhang, Ling & Berk Saydaliev, Hayot & Ma, Xiaoyu, 2022. "Does green finance investment and technological innovation improve renewable energy efficiency and sustainable development goals," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 991-1000.
    12. Mohsin, Muhammad & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2022. "Nexus between financial development and energy poverty in Latin America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    13. Lu, Qingchang & Farooq, Muhammad Umar & Ma, Xiaoyu & Iram, Robina, 2022. "Assessing the combining role of public-private investment as a green finance and renewable energy in carbon neutrality target," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1357-1365.
    14. Yao, Shouyu & Pan, Yuying & Sensoy, Ahmet & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Cheng, Feiyang, 2021. "Green credit policy and firm performance: What we learn from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    15. Li, Weiqing & Chien, Fengsheng & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Nguyen, Tien-Dung & Iqbal, Sajid & Bilal, Ahmad Raza, 2021. "Vertical financial disparity, energy prices and emission reduction: Empirical insights from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 109672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Zhen Liu & Trong Lam Vu & Thi Thu Hien Phan & Thanh Quang Ngo & Nguyen Ho Viet Anh & Ahmad Romadhoni Surya Putra, 2022. "Financial inclusion and green economic performance for energy efficiency finance," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2359-2389, November.
    17. Tan, Hua & Iqbal, Nadeem & Wu, Zhengzhong, 2022. "Evaluating the impact of stakeholder engagement for renewable energy sources and economic growth for CO2 emission," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 999-1007.
    18. Ming Fang & Chiu-Lan Chang, 2022. "Nexus between fiscal imbalances, green fiscal spending, and green economic growth: empirical findings from E-7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2423-2443, November.
    19. Hongsheng Zhang & Wen-Qi Luo & Shangzhao Yang & Jinna Yu, 2023. "Impact of Covid-19 on economic recovery: empirical analysis from China and global economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 57-78, February.
    20. Mingzhe Yu & Qiang Zhou & Mui Yee Cheok & Jakub Kubiczek & Nadeem Iqbal, 2022. "Does green finance improve energy efficiency? New evidence from developing and developed economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 485-509, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:72:y:2021:i:c:p:423-437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.