IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v155y2018icp438-447.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing oil supply security of South Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsin, M.
  • Zhou, P.
  • Iqbal, N.
  • Shah, S.A.A.

Abstract

Energy security assessment provides a benchmark for policy analysis and identifies the challenges for ensuring energy supplies as well. This paper develops a composite index for assessing the oil supply risk of South Asian countries. The index is based on a comprehensive set of indicators including the ratio of imported oil over GDP, geopolitical risk, market liquidity, GDP per capita, ratio of oil imports over consumption, diversification, oil price volatility, US$ volatility and transportation risk. Results reveal that India is the least oil vulnerable country while Afghanistan and Bangladesh are the most oil vulnerable countries. India's leading score reflects a higher potential to change the oil suppliers while Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal have the least score confirming them as the highest supply risk associated countries. Policies such as adopting renewable energy technologies, generating nuclear power, diversifying export sources and cutting down oil subsidies can help reduce the impact of oil supply risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsin, M. & Zhou, P. & Iqbal, N. & Shah, S.A.A., 2018. "Assessing oil supply security of South Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 438-447.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:155:y:2018:i:c:p:438-447
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544218307321
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.116?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vivoda, Vlado, 2009. "Diversification of oil import sources and energy security: A key strategy or an elusive objective?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4623, November.
    2. Kim, Jinsoo & Kim, Jihyo, 2015. "Korean public’s perceptions on supply security of fossil fuels: A contingent valuation analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 301-309.
    3. Cohen, Gail & Joutz, Frederick & Loungani, Prakash, 2011. "Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4860-4869, September.
    4. Kaufmann, Robert K., 2016. "Price differences among crude oils: The private costs of supply disruptions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-8.
    5. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "Comparing aggregating methods for constructing the composite environmental index: An objective measure," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 305-311, September.
    6. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2009. "Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4474-4481, November.
    7. Wabiri, Njeri & Amusa, Hammed, 2010. "Quantifying South Africa's crude oil import risk: A multi-criteria portfolio model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 445-453, January.
    8. Hatefi, S.M. & Torabi, S.A., 2010. "A common weight MCDA-DEA approach to construct composite indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 114-120, November.
    9. Yao, Lixia & Chang, Youngho, 2014. "Energy security in China: A quantitative analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 595-604.
    10. P. Zhou & B. Ang & D. Zhou, 2010. "Weighting and Aggregation in Composite Indicator Construction: a Multiplicative Optimization Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 96(1), pages 169-181, March.
    11. Asif, M. & Muneer, T., 2007. "Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(7), pages 1388-1413, September.
    12. Pan, Lingying & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2017. "A system dynamic analysis of China’s oil supply chain: Over-capacity and energy security issues," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 508-520.
    13. Peersman, Gert & Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1532-1547.
    14. Awerbuch, Shimon & Sauter, Raphael, 2006. "Exploiting the oil-GDP effect to support renewables deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2805-2819, November.
    15. Sun, Mei & Gao, Cuixia & Shen, Bo, 2014. "Quantifying China's oil import risks and the impact on the national economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 605-611.
    16. Sawik, Tadeusz, 2013. "Selection of resilient supply portfolio under disruption risks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 259-269.
    17. Wu, Gang & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2009. "Comparison of China's oil import risk: Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3557-3565, September.
    18. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2013. "An evaluation framework for oil import security based on the supply chain with a case study focused on China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-95.
    19. Greene, David L., 2010. "Measuring energy security: Can the United States achieve oil independence?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1614-1621, April.
    20. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Dependence and extreme dependence of crude oil and natural gas prices with applications to risk management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 332-342.
    21. Jun, Eunju & Kim, Wonjoon & Chang, Soon Heung, 2009. "The analysis of security cost for different energy sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 1894-1901, October.
    22. Hosseini, Seyed Hossein & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2016. "A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-74.
    23. Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
    24. Gately, Dermot & Al-Yousef, Nourah & Al-Sheikh, Hamad M.H., 2012. "The rapid growth of domestic oil consumption in Saudi Arabia and the opportunity cost of oil exports foregone," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 57-68.
    25. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    26. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    27. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2007. "A mathematical programming approach to constructing composite indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 291-297, April.
    28. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2011. "China's energy security, the Malacca dilemma and responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7612-7615.
    29. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2013. "Exogenous oil shocks, fiscal policies and sector reallocations in oil producing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 42-57.
    30. Wang, Minggang & Tian, Lixin & Du, Ruijin, 2016. "Research on the interaction patterns among the global crude oil import dependency countries: A complex network approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 779-791.
    31. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    32. Wang, H. & Zhou, P. & Wang, Qunwei, 2016. "Constructing slacks-based composite indicator of sustainable energy development for China: A meta-frontier nonparametric approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 218-228.
    33. P. Zhou & B. Ang, 2009. "Comparing MCDA Aggregation Methods in Constructing Composite Indicators Using the Shannon-Spearman Measure," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 83-96, October.
    34. Blum, Helcio & Legey, Luiz F.L., 2012. "The challenging economics of energy security: Ensuring energy benefits in support to sustainable development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1982-1989.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Hai-Ying & Zhang, Dayong, 2019. "The impact of OPEC on East Asian oil import security: A multidimensional analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 99-107.
    2. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    3. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2013. "An evaluation framework for oil import security based on the supply chain with a case study focused on China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-95.
    4. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Vivoda, Vlado, 2019. "LNG import diversification and energy security in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 967-974.
    6. Sato, Masahiro & Kharrazi, Ali & Nakayama, Hirofumi & Kraines, Steven & Yarime, Masaru, 2017. "Quantifying the supplier-portfolio diversity of embodied energy: Strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 41-52.
    7. Xiaolei Sun & Jun Hao & Jianping Li, 2022. "Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 309(2), pages 611-639, February.
    8. Vivoda, Vlado, 2022. "LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Liu, Litao & Cao, Zhi & Liu, Xiaojie & Shi, Lei & Cheng, Shengkui & Liu, Gang, 2020. "Oil security revisited: An assessment based on complex network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    10. Xiaodong Guo & Chen Hao & Shuwen Niu, 2020. "Analysis of Oil Import Risk and Strategic Petroleum Reserve: The Case of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-20, May.
    11. Narula, Kapil & Reddy, B. Sudhakara, 2016. "A SES (sustainable energy security) index for developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 326-343.
    12. Kamonphorn Kanchana & Hironobu Unesaki, 2015. "Assessing Energy Security Using Indicator-Based Analysis: The Case of ASEAN Member Countries," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-47, December.
    13. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "Energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices—Taiwan energy supply structure case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 9-20.
    14. Gasser, Patrick, 2020. "A review on energy security indices to compare country performances," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Chen, Sai & Song, Yan & Ding, Yueting & Zhang, Ming & Nie, Rui, 2021. "Using long short-term memory model to study risk assessment and prediction of China’s oil import from the perspective of resilience theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    16. Jianping Li & Xiaolei Sun & Fei Wang & Dengsheng Wu, 2015. "Risk integration and optimization of oil-importing maritime system: a multi-objective programming approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 57-76, November.
    17. Lu, Hongfang & Xu, FengYing & Liu, Hongxiao & Wang, Jun & Campbell, Daniel E. & Ren, Hai, 2019. "Emergy-based analysis of the energy security of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 123-135.
    18. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    19. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    20. Zhang, Long & Yu, Jing & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Ren, Jingzheng, 2017. "Measuring energy security performance within China: Toward an inter-provincial prospective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 825-836.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:155:y:2018:i:c:p:438-447. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.