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An evaluation framework for oil import security based on the supply chain with a case study focused on China

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  • Zhang, Hai-Ying
  • Ji, Qiang
  • Fan, Ying

Abstract

The import risks confronting oil consumers are influenced by transport conditions, oil prices, geopolitics, etc. This paper constructs an evaluation framework for oil import security from a perspective of supply chain process, and builds a two-phase DEA-like model to evaluate oil import security. China is taken as an example to measure its oil import security during 1993–2011 and to identify the main risk factors in different periods. Results indicate that China's oil import risks have kept rising since 1993 and face multiple potential threats from each stage of oil import supply chain, among which the threat from external dependence has become the biggest challenge. Under different economic situations and changing energy environment, the risk factors affecting China's oil import security switched among different stages of the supply chain, showing a phase-transitioning characteristic from import over-dependence to increasing external supply pressure. The threat of external supply has become a new risk since the pressure of decreasing availability of external resource rose.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2013. "An evaluation framework for oil import security based on the supply chain with a case study focused on China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-95.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:38:y:2013:i:c:p:87-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.03.014
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    Cited by:

    1. Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki & Yuan, Yan & Goto, Mika, 2017. "A literature study for DEA applied to energy and environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 104-124.
    2. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "A framework for evaluating Singapore’s energy security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 314-325.
    3. Shaikh, Faheemullah & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Prospects of Pakistan–China Energy and Economic Corridor," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 253-263.
    4. An, Haizhong & Zhong, Weiqiong & Chen, Yurong & Li, Huajiao & Gao, Xiangyun, 2014. "Features and evolution of international crude oil trade relationships: A trading-based network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 254-259.
    5. Hughes, Larry & de Jong, Moniek & Wang, Xiao Qin, 2016. "A generic method for analyzing the risks to energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 895-908.
    6. Li, Huajiao & An, Haizhong & Liu, Xueyong & Gao, Xiangyun & Fang, Wei & An, Feng, 2016. "Price fluctuation in the energy stock market based on fluctuation and co-fluctuation matrix transmission networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 73-83.
    7. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    8. Li, Huajiao & An, Haizhong & Huang, Jiachen & Huang, Xuan & Mou, Songtao & Shi, Yanli, 2016. "The evolutionary stability of shareholders’ co-holding behavior for China’s listed energy companies based on associated maximal connected sub-graphs of derivative holding-based networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1601-1607.
    9. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang, 2014. "Multi-perspective analysis of China's energy supply security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 541-550.
    10. repec:eee:energy:v:155:y:2018:i:c:p:438-447 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Stergios Athanassoglou, 2016. "Revisiting Worst-Case DEA for Composite Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 1259-1272, September.
    12. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "What drives the formation of global oil trade patterns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 639-648.
    13. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2014. "Competition, transmission and pattern evolution: A network analysis of global oil trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 312-322.
    14. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    15. Sun, Mei & Gao, Cuixia & Shen, Bo, 2014. "Quantifying China's oil import risks and the impact on the national economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 605-611.
    16. Li, Huajiao & Fang, Wei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Yan, Lili, 2016. "Holding-based network of nations based on listed energy companies: An empirical study on two-mode affiliation network of two sets of actors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 224-232.
    17. Li, Huajiao & An, Haizhong & Fang, Wei & Wang, Yue & Zhong, Weiqiong & Yan, Lili, 2017. "Global energy investment structure from the energy stock market perspective based on a Heterogeneous Complex Network Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 648-657.
    18. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    19. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:5:p:1685-:d:148390 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ren, Jingzheng & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2014. "Quantifying, measuring, and strategizing energy security: Determining the most meaningful dimensions and metrics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 838-849.
    21. Pan, Lingying & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2017. "A system dynamic analysis of China’s oil supply chain: Over-capacity and energy security issues," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 508-520.
    22. Narula, Kapil & Reddy, B. Sudhakara, 2016. "A SES (sustainable energy security) index for developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 326-343.
    23. repec:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:12:p:2140-:d:123147 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil import security; Supply chain risk evaluation; DEA-like model;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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