Indicators for energy security
The concept of energy security is widely used, yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation. In this research, we have provided an overview of available indicators for long-term security of supply (SOS). We distinguished four dimensions of energy security that relate to the availability, accessibility, affordability and acceptability of energy and classified indicators for energy security according to this taxonomy. There is no one ideal indicator, as the notion of energy security is highly context dependent. Rather, applying multiple indicators leads to a broader understanding. Incorporating these indicators in model-based scenario analysis showed accelerated depletion of currently known fossil resources due to increasing global demand. Coupled with increasing spatial discrepancy between consumption and production, international trade in energy carriers is projected to have increased by 142% in 2050 compared to 2008. Oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a few countries up to 2030, after which production from other regions diversifies the market. Under stringent climate policies, this diversification may not occur due to reduced demand for oil. Possible benefits of climate policy include increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources.
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- Grubb, Michael & Butler, Lucy & Twomey, Paul, 2006.
"Diversity and security in UK electricity generation: The influence of low-carbon objectives,"
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- Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
- van Vuuren, Detlef & Fengqi, Zhou & Vries, Bert de & Kejun, Jiang & Graveland, Cor & Yun, Li, 2003. "Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century--exploration of baseline development and mitigation options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 369-387, March.
- D. P. van Vuuren & H.J.M. de Vries, 2001. "Mitigation scenarios in a world oriented at sustainable development: the role of technology, efficiency and timing," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 189-210, June.
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